It's that time again! Another month (or so) has passed, and I have an update on how this season's BoxScore Geeks portfolio is doing. You can read the previous reports here:
| Team | W/L | Bet | % | $ | Odds | Paybett(W) | PyW/L | expWins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHO | 31-30 (0.508) | OVER 43 | 14% | $1050 | 1.91 | $2005.5 | 0.514 | 42 |
| CHI | 37-23 (0.617) | UNDER 55 | 10% | $750 | 1.91 | $1432.5 | 0.594 | 50 |
| PHI | 13-47 (0.217) | OVER 15.5 | 5% | $375 | 1.91 | $716.25 | 0.177 | 17 |
| WAS | 34-26 (0.567) | UNDER 48 | 5% | $375 | 1.91 | $716.25 | 0.524 | 46 |
| MIN | 13-46 (0.22) | OVER 27.5 | 10% | $750 | 1.91 | $1432.5 | 0.256 | 19 |
| SAC | 20-37 (0.351) | OVER 30 | 10% | $750 | 1.91 | $1432.5 | 0.357 | 29 |
| BRK | 25-33 (0.431) | UNDER 42 | 7% | $525 | 1.91 | $1002.75 | 0.397 | 35 |
| CHA | 24-33 (0.421) | UNDER 44 | 5% | $375 | 1.91 | $716.25 | 0.415 | 34 |
| DAL | 40-22 (0.645) | UNDER 49.5 | 5% | $375 | 1.91 | $716.25 | 0.654 | 53 |
| MIA | 26-33 (0.441) | UNDER 44 | 5% | $375 | 1.91 | $716.25 | 0.401 | 35 |
| SAS | 36-23 (0.61) | OVER 57 | 5% | $375 | 1.91 | $716.25 | 0.62 | 50 |
| Division Bets | ||||||||
| Team | W/L | Bet | % | $ | Odds | Paybett(W) | ExpWins | GB |
| TOR | 38-22 (0.633) | WIN ATLANTIC | 3% | $225 | 1.7 | $382.5 | 52 | -13 |
| SAS | 36-23 (0.61) | WIN SOUTHWEST | 5% | $375 | 1.6 | $600.0 | 50 | 6.5 |
| CLE | 37-24 (0.607) | WIN CENTRAL | 4% | $300 | 1.5 | $450.0 | 50 | 0.5 |
| PHO | 31-30 (0.508) | WIN PACIFIC | 3% | $225 | 13.0 | $2925.0 | 42 | 15 |
| MIN | 13-46 (0.22) | WIN NORTHWEST | 1% | $75 | 101.0 | $7575.0 | 19 | 26 |
| POR | 39-19 (0.672) | WIN NORTHWEST | 1% | $75 | 3.8 | $285.0 | 55 | -6 |
| ATL | 47-12 (0.797) | WIN SOUTHEAST | 1% | $75 | 6.0 | $450.0 | 63 | -13 |
Data for this article is for games played through March 2nd, 2015. As usual, an explanation of a few columns:
- PyW/L is the team's Pythagorean win percentage expectation, which calculates an expected win percentage based on points for and points against. I arbitrarily chose Daryl Morey's method of calculating this in basketball, which you can find on Wikipedia.
- expWins is simply the team's current wins + (PyW/L * remaining games). In other words, how many expected wins will the team have at season's end if performance to date remains constant (which, as Arturo has pointed out, has some variability this early in the season).
- For division, I've abandoned "rank" in favor of "games back" to illustrate how these bets are doing. Teams with negative games back indicate that they are in first place (that is, Atlanta, at -13 "games back" is in first place with a 13-game lead).
This was a rather bad month for the portfolio, mostly because the team behind one of the biggest over bets decided to trade away three good players.
BOOK IT
- Charlotte UNDER 44. They continue to look a lot better, but I continue to believe that they can't dig out of the hole they started the season with. They'd have to 20-5 from here on out. This isn't going to happen, especially because Mo Williams is not going to play like this the rest of the way.
- Brooklyn UNDER 42. Thad Young has, so far, been amazing for the Nets. Because of course he has. It's only logical that after being terrible for a season and a half, he'd go on a 6-game tear for his new team. Sure. Still, this won't continue, and Brooklyn won't finish the season 17-7. I hope.
- Toronto to Win the Atlantic. Even if Brooklyn DID go 17-7 to finish the season, Toronto isn't going to go 3-19.
- Portland to Win the Northwest. The Thunder are coming on strong, but six games is a huge lead with only 25ish games left. Let's assume the Thunder play championship ball from here on out, which would be pretty amazing given the health struggles they've had. If the Thunder win 17 more games and finish 50-32, the Blazers still only need to play 0.500 ball to win the division.
- Miami UNDER 44. Magic thinks Chris Bosh going down torpedoed their chances, but Magic thankfully played the game better than he analyzes it. Goran Dragic and Hassan Whiteside both make this pretty interesting, but it's too late. I don't think they are winning 18 of their next 23 games.
- Atlanta to win the Southeast. Atlanta doesn't even need to play .500 ball the rest of the way. What's their magic number, like, 5? Only an act of God is going to prevent them from winning the Southeast.
HANG ON TO IT
- Sacramento OVER 30. Oh man, this team is pissing me off. They were half way there after about 30 games, and are in complete free-fall since firing Malone. Speaking of which, that was a very what-the-fuck move. Even if I buy the owner's contention that they needed to play a different style of play (I do not), what would have been the harm of waiting until the offseason to let him go? The primary reason they've stunk is, of course, DeMarcus Cousins' worsened play. His turnovers, his defense, and his fouls are killing them. How does a guy who doesn't even try that hard on defense rack up so many damn fouls!? I'm hoping Karl gives lots of minutes to his old favorite Andre Miller.
- Phoenix OVER 43. The Dragic trade I understood, because if he doesn't want to re-sign, getting some assets is a good idea. But the Brandon Knight trade was a killer (for me and this bet). The team lost three good players (Dragic, Thomas, Plumlee), and acquired Knight, who might have learned a thing or two from Jason Kidd, but has a history of being terrible. And despite shipping out Plumlee, they still can't seem to find 30 minutes a game for Wright, who is by far their best big man, and continue to roll out small ball lineups with both Morris brothers. Damn, that was a disaster of a month for this bet.
- Chicago UNDER 55. The injury to Rose was bad for me because Rose has been awful all year long, so his absence made the team better. But the injury to Jimmy Butler is way more important and means that this bet looks very good now.
- Cleveland to win the Central. Jimmy Butler's injury combined with LeBron's return and the surprising play of both Mozgov and Smith have me optimistic about this one.
- Philadelphia OVER 15.5. I mentioned this last time, and I will repeat it here: Nerlens Noel has been amazing in 2015. I think the key to this bet will be whether Noel develops any mysterious "back spasms" or "flu-like symptoms" or anything else over the last 25 games or so.
- Washington UNDER 48. Wow! This one is back in play! It was a terrible February for this team, and management made matters even worse (or better, for me!) by trading the old-but-still-very-effective Andre Miller for Ramon Sessions, who's decent, but wildly inconsistent.
THROW IT OUT
- San Antonio to win the Southwest, San Antonio over 57. Too many Kawhi Leonard DNPs.
- Minnesota OVER 27.5, Minnesota to win Northwest. This isn't the first year that Minnesota cost me money with a ton of injuries. Oh, what could have been. Rubio essentially turns an unwatchable lottery team into a 0.500 squad, but it's just too late. If they'd only won a few more games while Rubio was out, this could be salvageable, because Garnett will not allow the organization to tank during his farewell tour.
- Dallas UNDER 49.5. Despite how poorly the Rondo experimient is working, they are on pace for 53. I don't feel very good about this one.
- Phoenix to win the Pacific. This is a long-shot that didn't pan out.
I'm still pleased, even though Phoenix's horrible roster management has me in a bit of a rage.