It's that time again! Another month (or so) has passed, and I have an update on how this season's BoxScore Geeks portfolio is doing. You can read the previous reports here:
| Team | W/L | Bet | % | $ | Odds | Paybett(W) | PyW/L | expWins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHO | 28-22 (0.56) | (O) 43 | 14% | $1050 | 1.91 | $2005.5 | 0.558 | 46 |
| CHI | 30-19 (0.612) | (U) 55 | 10% | $750 | 1.91 | $1432.5 | 0.576 | 49 |
| PHI | 11-39 (0.22) | (O) 15.5 | 5% | $375 | 1.91 | $716.25 | 0.164 | 16 |
| WAS | 31-18 (0.633) | (U) 48 | 5% | $375 | 1.91 | $716.25 | 0.566 | 50 |
| MIN | 8-40 (0.167) | (O) 27.5 | 10% | $750 | 1.91 | $1432.5 | 0.216 | 15 |
| SAC | 17-30 (0.362) | (O) 30 | 10% | $750 | 1.91 | $1432.5 | 0.388 | 31 |
| BRK | 19-28 (0.404) | (U) 42 | 7% | $525 | 1.91 | $1002.75 | 0.369 | 32 |
| CHA | 21-27 (0.438) | (U) 44 | 5% | $375 | 1.91 | $716.25 | 0.421 | 35 |
| DAL | 33-17 (0.66) | (U) 49.5 | 5% | $375 | 1.91 | $716.25 | 0.684 | 55 |
| MIA | 21-27 (0.438) | (U) 44 | 5% | $375 | 1.91 | $716.25 | 0.365 | 33 |
| SAS | 30-18 (0.625) | (O) 57 | 5% | $375 | 1.91 | $716.25 | 0.624 | 51 |
| Division Bets | ||||||||
| Team | W/L | Bet | % | $ | Odds | Paybett(W) | Rank | expWins |
| TOR | 33-16 (0.673) | WIN ATLANTIC | 3% | $225 | 1.7 | $382.5 | 1st | 55 |
| SAS | 30-18 (0.625) | WIN SOUTHWEST | 5% | $375 | 1.6 | $600.0 | 4th | 51 |
| CLE | 30-20 (0.6) | WIN CENTRAL | 4% | $300 | 1.5 | $450.0 | 2nd | 49 |
| PHO | 28-22 (0.56) | WIN PACIFIC | 3% | $225 | 13.0 | $2925.0 | 3rd | 46 |
| MIN | 8-40 (0.167) | WIN NORTHWEST | 1% | $75 | 101.0 | $7575.0 | 5th | 15 |
| POR | 33-16 (0.673) | WIN NORTHWEST | 1% | $75 | 3.8 | $285.0 | 1st | 55 |
| ATL | 40-9 (0.816) | WIN SOUTHEAST | 1% | $75 | 6.0 | $450.0 | 1st | 64 |
As usual, an explanation of a few columns:
- Data for this article is from games played through February 3rd, 2015.
- PyW/L is the team's pythagorean win percentage expectation, which calculates an expected win percentage based on points for and points against. I arbitrarily chose Daryl Morey's method of calculating this in basketball, which you can find on Wikipedia.
- expWins is simply the team's current wins + (PyW/L * remaining games). In other words, how many expected wins will the team have at season's end if performance to date remains constant (which, as Arturo has pointed out, has some variability this early in the season).
- For division, Rank is based on win/loss percentage, not total wins. Right now, those can differ because some teams have played more than others, but at the end of the season, obviously, they produce identical rankings.
It's amazing how some "sure" wins have turn into too-close-to-call bets (as have some "sure" losses), and vice-versa. But, stubbornly, I'm going to stick to my stupid idea of dividing the bets up into three categories (but I'm totally re-naming these next year, so I don't look quite as stupid):
BOOK IT
- Charlotte UNDER 44. They've looked a lot better in the last two months, and MKG is a big part of this, but the damage from that horrid start continues to look irreperable. They might eke into the playoffs because this is, after all, the East, but 44 wins sounds crazy.
- Brooklyn UNDER 42. Rumor has it the Nets just turned down Denver's offer of JJ Hickson, JaVale McGee, and a first round pick for Lopez. Considering that Lopez is OK when healthy, but injured a lot, turning down that offer sounds somewhere between misguided and idiotic. Denver's management is putrid, and they are itching to make mistakes. For god's sake, LET THEM.
- Toronto to Win the Atlantic. Who's going to catch them?
- Portland to Win the Northwest. The Thunder are going to struggle to catch the 8th seed, much less the Northwest Division championship. Even if Aldridge had opted for surgery, this one would still be in the bag.
- Miami UNDER 44. So this whole Hassan Whiteside thing makes this more interesting than it could be, but my guess is that he won't play enough to make the difference, and the team still has the problem that Dwyane Wade's younger knees aren't walking through that door any time soon.
- Atlanta to win the Southeast. Last time, they were a half game back. Now, they are 9 games up. Their 17-game win streak was snapped by
Anthony Davisthe Pelicans the other night, but I'll still put this one in the win column.
HANG ON TO IT
- Sacramento OVER 30. This is quite the collapse. They've lost 9 of their last ten, but it was a brutal schedule (GSW twice, Cavs, Blazers, Clippers, Mavs). I still think this is looking good but they are going to have to beat the teams they are "supposed to" beat, and in the dog days of the season, that might be rough.
- Phoenix OVER 43. They are going to make me sweat this thing all damn year, aren't they? It seems they do everything in streaks. I'm still waiting for Brandan Wright to get more minutes. That's not Dirk and Tyson in front of him in the rotation. I don't understand why he isn't getting 25-30 every night.
- Chicago UNDER 55. This one will depend on Rose's health, but not in the way you think. Rose has, for the most part, been killing the Bulls when he plays, and they are winning despite of him. He literally shoots them out of games. He's not the player he used to be, but he also hasn't adjusted his game accordingly and still shoots the ball as often as an MVP would. He's averaging a career high in field goal attempts, with career lows in shooting efficiency (discounting last year's very short sample), which is obviously an awful combo. We all (correctly) chided Kobe for doing the same thing, but the media is giving Rose a pass on this.
- Cleveland to win the Central. An 11-game winning streak has brought them back into a virtual tie with Chicago.
- Philadelphia OVER 15.5. So...wow. Like last year's Jazz over bet, this is a pretty heady comeback. The team has now won three straight home games, and actually looks like an NBA team. A bad one, sure, but no one is likely to pick Louisville to beat this team any time soon. They might even win 20. Nerlens Noel is starting to figure things out (0.232 WP48 in 2015, with 12.1 RB, 3.6BLK, and 2.4 STL per 48). He's still very raw on offense, but he doesn't shoot enough to hurt the team on that end.
THROW IT OUT
- San Antonio to win the Southwest. Six games back is a huge gap this late in the season. Kawhi was out for too long, and the Spurs had too many unlucky losses while he was out.
- Washington UNDER 48. Rasual Butler has cooled down, and so have the Wizards, but their head start was too big. They remain a good team, John Wall is the second best point guard in the East (if you count LeBron) and I think they could cool down enough to be a 50-win team, but I don't see 47 or less happening.
- San Antonio OVER 57. The damage on this one was done in December, sadly.
- Minnesota OVER 27.5. This was mostly injuries. But at what point do we start acknowledging that Flip is no better than David Kahn was at managing an NBA roster? The endless revolving door of acquiring and releasing players with no plan or process behind it is truly baffling. Why did the team give up a first round pick for Thad Young? What possible use was he? Why did the team drop Jeff Adrien just to open up a spot to give Raduljica two ten-day contracts, then never play him? Why did the team finally spend money on a backup point guard just in time for Rubio's return, which makes the need far less acute? Just what the HELL are they doing!? There's no process at all.
- Minnesota to win Northwest. See above. But since I have another bullet point, I'll use it to say that yes, Andrew Wiggins is a bright spot. He's played much better in the new year, with a WP48 of 0.169, 54% TS, 6 REB/48, much improved turnovers (2.5/48), and a very low foul rate (2.7/48). These are all promising numbers, but they need to become a trend.
- Dallas UNDER 49.5. This is another one where the early damage is too much to overcome. Rondo has, so far, been a disappointment for the Mavs, with a much lower assist rate than his career average, and abysmal shooting. I don't expect that to last, though. He's bound to bounce back.
- Phoenix to win the Pacific. Yeah, well, it was a long shot anyway, right?
Overall, I'm quite pleased. The only "big bet" that is completely off the table is Minnesota.