When Bad is an Upgrade

It's easy to get more excited about the Timberwolves than a rational person would; they have what looks like an easy pick for rookie of the year in Rubio (actually Leonard is just about as good but I'll wager a lot of money that he's not going to even be in the top 5 in votes), and arguably the game's best power forward in Kevin Love (if he'd only stop whining).

Almost Average to the Rescue!

But then...you look at the rest of this roster. Dre recently joked with me on Twitter that the Wolves might set a record for worst won-loss record on a team with two players above WP48 .250 on it. I laughed at him at the time but now I'm not amused. We have to keep in perspective that Love's teammates last year were terrible. Historically bad.

This is why I am excited about the return of Martell Webster, and the fact that Wayne Ellington and Anthony Randolph are getting more playing time. No, really.

None of these players are good. I'd call each and every one of them "below average" players:

Raw Stats
Season Min WP48 Wins PTS REB AST TO BLK STL PF
Ellington 09-10 1384 .030 0.9 17.5 5.5 2.6 2.6 0.2 0.7 2.5
Ellington 10-11 1182 -.030 -0.7 16.6 4.4 2.9 2.2 0.1 1.1 3.5
Ellington 11-12 193 .079 0.3 13.7 3.7 1.2 1.2 0.2 2.2 3.2
Randolph 08-09 1129 .104 2.5 21.2 15.4 2.1 3.4 3.1 1.8 6.0
Randolph 09-10 749 .112 1.8 24.6 13.8 2.7 3.1 3.3 1.8 5.9
Randolph 10-11 591 .017 0.2 24.8 13.0 2.8 4.3 1.9 1.8 5.0
Randolph 11-12 137 .092 0.3 23.5 8.4 0.4 4.2 2.1 1.8 5.6
Webster 05-06 1070 .029 0.7 18.1 5.8 1.5 1.9 0.6 0.9 4.0
Webster 06-07 1759 .048 1.8 15.7 6.5 1.4 2.1 0.5 1.0 3.4
Webster 07-08 2132 .082 3.6 18.0 6.7 2.0 1.9 0.6 0.9 3.6
Webster 08-09 5 -.342 -0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Webster 09-10 2005 .094 3.9 18.4 6.4 1.5 1.4 1.0 1.1 3.7
Webster 10-11 1095 .071 1.6 19.9 6.4 2.3 2.5 0.4 1.2 4.4
 
Average PF(2008 - 2011) 1224 .099 2.5 20.5 11.2 2.5 2.4 1.3 1.3 4.8
Average SG(2009 - 2011) 1169 .099 2.4 20.8 5.5 4.1 2.6 0.5 1.5 3.5
Average SF(2005 - 2010) 1908 .099 3.9 21.2 7.5 3.6 2.5 0.8 1.5 3.7

But "below average" is a monumental upgrade from "terrible":

Raw Stats
Season Min WP48 Wins PTS REB AST TO BLK STL PF
Beasley 08-09 2009 .063 2.6 26.8 10.5 2.0 2.9 0.9 1.0 4.4
Beasley 09-10 2328 .080 3.9 23.8 10.3 2.1 2.7 1.0 1.6 4.6
Beasley 10-11 2365 -.100 -4.9 28.4 8.3 3.2 4.0 1.1 1.1 4.5
Beasley 11-12 222 -.109 -0.5 19.5 10.6 1.5 4.3 0.6 0.6 4.8
Johnson 10-11 2068 .018 0.8 16.5 5.6 3.5 2.2 1.3 1.3 3.8
Johnson 11-12 255 -.086 -0.5 11.5 6.0 2.1 3.6 0.9 1.1 2.8
Milicic 03-04 159 -.227 -0.8 14.5 13.0 2.1 3.9 4.5 2.1 10.0
Milicic 04-05 254 -.214 -1.1 12.7 8.1 1.3 3.0 3.2 0.4 5.9
Milicic 05-06 767 .044 0.7 16.6 9.4 2.6 3.2 4.8 0.9 5.8
Milicic 06-07 1913 .050 2.0 16.0 11.0 2.3 3.1 3.5 1.1 5.5
Milicic 07-08 1663 -.035 -1.2 14.6 12.2 1.7 2.9 3.3 0.9 5.3
Milicic 08-09 1034 .069 1.5 15.5 12.3 1.6 2.2 2.4 1.0 6.2
Milicic 09-10 685 .022 0.3 15.1 10.6 3.3 2.5 2.4 1.5 5.7
Milicic 10-11 1685 -.052 -1.8 17.3 10.3 3.0 4.3 4.0 1.5 6.5
Milicic 11-12 222 -.060 -0.3 13.4 11.2 0.9 3.2 1.9 0.9 6.1
 
Average SF(2008 - 2011) 1422 .099 2.9 20.8 7.4 3.6 2.5 0.8 1.5 3.6
Average C(2003 - 2011) 1351 .099 2.8 17.8 12.7 2.3 2.7 2.1 1.1 5.4
It's easy to forget, but replacing average players with star players isn't the only way to make team better. You can replace bad players with average players. Or, you can replace really terrible players (true albatrosses) with players that are "only" bad.
 
Ellington has yet to prove whether he'll make a 3rd-year leap to "MEH" or if he's a bad player. But even at a WP48 of zero he'd be a sizable upgrade from both Beasley and Johnson. And if Webster is healthy, almost-average level production from the wing will be like...dare I say Manna from Heaven?
 
As for Randolph, well, whatever he decides to be when he grows up and the Wizard grants him a brain, for all his (numerous) faults, he is better than Darko. I made the case a few days ago that Darko is merely bad, and that Rambis was at fault for turning him into god-awful, but he seems to be trying to prove me wrong. Either way, I would rather watch Randolph do something boneheaded than watch Darko miss yet another lefty hook.
 
Now if only the Wolves would go out and pay the vet minimum for the decidedly average Keith Bogans.
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