End of an era.
It seems impossible for Kobe and Tim Duncan to avoid being linked in the annals of NBA history. They entered the league within a year of each other. Both ended their careers with five rings. Both will likely be considered all-time greats. And while I do find both All-Time great players, I do think Tim Duncan is "slightly" better. Slightly being an understatement, of course.
You can compare Kobe and Tim's career numbers using the Boxscore Geeks Comparison Tool (here's the link) I'd like to note a few things there:
First, while Tim Duncan did finish his career with a slightly better True Shooting Percentage (which factors in threes and free throws), he was a worse scorer than Kobe. As a wing, the expected shooting efficiency from Kobe was worse than Tim Duncan. In essence, the reason Tim Duncan was better than Kobe was the rest of his game, which was damned solid.
Second, Tim Duncan's career Adjusted Production per 48 (which does not factor in position or season played) ended up being identical to Shaq's! I find that fitting.
Alright, onto some Win statistics comparing Tim and Kobe.
- Wins Produced - the total Wins Produced by the player based on their boxscore stats and position
- Points over Par per 48 (PoP48) - how much our player with four average players would be expected to defeat a team of average players in 48 minutes of play.
- Win % - the total percentage of team wins the player is responsible for (using Wins Produced for all players) These are limited to the season and time (regular season, non-finals Playoffs, and Finals) listed below.
A note, my numbers in this article may be slightly different than those listed in the Players tab for the site. That's because I have used game by game position adjustment. That means that yes, we are working on game-by-game Wins Produced being on the site, but no, we don't have it yet.
Tim Duncan Regular Season Win Numbers
| Player | Season | G | PoP48 | Wins Produced | Win % | Win % Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Duncan | 1998 | 82 | 3.52 | 14.2 | 27.5% | 2 |
| Tim Duncan | 1999 | 50 | 2.42 | 7.2 | 19% | 2 |
| Tim Duncan | 2000 | 74 | 3.81 | 13.3 | 23.4% | 2 |
| Tim Duncan | 2001 | 82 | 2.52 | 11.9 | 19.3% | 2 |
| Tim Duncan | 2002 | 82 | 4.99 | 18 | 31.3% | 1 |
| Tim Duncan | 2003 | 81 | 5.15 | 17.5 | 31.7% | 1 |
| Tim Duncan | 2004 | 69 | 4.87 | 13.5 | 22.5% | 1 |
| Tim Duncan | 2005 | 66 | 5.44 | 12.6 | 20.4% | 1 |
| Tim Duncan | 2006 | 80 | 3.04 | 11.4 | 19.3% | 1 |
| Tim Duncan | 2007 | 83 | 5.25 | 15.8 | 24.4% | 1 |
| Tim Duncan | 2008 | 78 | 4.04 | 12.6 | 23.7% | 2 |
| Tim Duncan | 2009 | 75 | 3.37 | 10.9 | 21.4% | 1 |
| Tim Duncan | 2010 | 78 | 4.77 | 12.8 | 23.6% | 1 |
| Tim Duncan | 2011 | 76 | 3.63 | 9.7 | 17.3% | 2 |
| Tim Duncan | 2012 | 58 | 1.68 | 5.2 | 10.8% | 4 |
| Tim Duncan | 2013 | 69 | 3.38 | 9.0 | 15.5% | 2 |
| Tim Duncan | 2014 | 77 | 2.23 | 7.7 | 12.5% | 2 |
| Tim Duncan | 2015 | 82 | 4.26 | 10.9 | 19% | 2 |
| Tim Duncan | 2016 | 62 | 2.48 | 5.7 | 8.3% | 4 |
The story: Tim Duncan joined the Spurs and was immediately an impact, but was the second best player behind David Robinson. In 2002 Duncan turned into the main star on the Spurs except for 2008 and 2011 where he was narrowly edged out by the perpetually underrated Manu Ginobili. From 2012 on Tim Duncan remained a top productive player on the Spurs.
Kobe Bryant Regular Season Win Numbers
| Player | Season | G | PoP48 | Wins Produced | Win % | Win % Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kobe Bryant | 1997 | 71 | -1.67 | 1 | 2% | 10 |
| Kobe Bryant | 1998 | 79 | -0.96 | 2.9 | 4.7% | 8 |
| Kobe Bryant | 1999 | 50 | 0.69 | 4.8 | 16.1% | 2 |
| Kobe Bryant | 2000 | 66 | 2.69 | 9.8 | 15.3% | 2 |
| Kobe Bryant | 2001 | 68 | 1.06 | 7.7 | 15.4% | 3 |
| Kobe Bryant | 2002 | 80 | 1.61 | 9.6 | 16.1% | 2 |
| Kobe Bryant | 2003 | 82 | 2.39 | 12.5 | 26.4% | 2 |
| Kobe Bryant | 2004 | 65 | 2.74 | 9.5 | 18.6% | 3 |
| Kobe Bryant | 2005 | 66 | 1.02 | 7.4 | 22.4% | 1 |
| Kobe Bryant | 2006 | 80 | 0.61 | 8.1 | 17% | 2 |
| Kobe Bryant | 2007 | 80 | 1.79 | 10.6 | 25.6% | 1 |
| Kobe Bryant | 2008 | 82 | 2.61 | 12.2 | 20.2% | 1 |
| Kobe Bryant | 2009 | 82 | 2.11 | 10.3 | 16.8% | 2 |
| Kobe Bryant | 2010 | 73 | 0.39 | 6.6 | 12.3% | 5 |
| Kobe Bryant | 2011 | 82 | 0.37 | 6.4 | 11.2% | 4 |
| Kobe Bryant | 2012 | 58 | -1.81 | 1.9 | 5.3% | 5 |
| Kobe Bryant | 2013 | 78 | 1.09 | 8.4 | 19.2% | 2 |
| Kobe Bryant | 2014 | 6 | -5.33 | -0.3 | -1.1% | 18 |
| Kobe Bryant | 2015 | 74 | -4.42 | -1.1 | -4.8% | 17 |
| Kobe Bryant | 2016 | 69 | -5.77 | -3.4 | -22.1% | 15 |
The Story: Kobe Bryant joined an amazing Lakers squad with Shaquille O'Neal but was not immediately productive. In 1999 Kobe turned into an awesome 2nd (and occasionally third) option behind Shaq. After the Lakers imploded in 2004, it became Kobe's squad until they signed Pau Gasol in 2008. After then, Kobe was a productive piece of the Lakers until 2012, when he declined and exited early with an injury. Kobe bounced back in 2013 and helped the Lakers to the playoffs playing great behind Dwight Howard. Sadly, he was injured and did not play in the playoffs. Kobe never returned to productive status after that.
Tim Duncan's Playoff (non-Finals) Numbers
| Player | Season | G | PoP48 | Wins Produced | Win % | Win % Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Duncan | 1998 | 9 | 1.01 | 1.0 | 18.8% | 3 |
| Tim Duncan | 1999 | 12 | 3.25 | 2.1 | 23.4% | 2 |
| Tim Duncan | 2001 | 13 | 3.27 | 2.2 | 35.7% | 2 |
| Tim Duncan | 2002 | 9 | 5.25 | 2.1 | 35.8% | 1 |
| Tim Duncan | 2003 | 18 | 7.37 | 5.3 | 43.8% | 1 |
| Tim Duncan | 2004 | 10 | 1.78 | 1.3 | 22.1% | 2 |
| Tim Duncan | 2005 | 16 | 2.81 | 2.3 | 19.8% | 2 |
| Tim Duncan | 2006 | 13 | 5.25 | 2.8 | 36.4% | 1 |
| Tim Duncan | 2007 | 13 | 5.02 | 2.6 | 32.3% | 1 |
| Tim Duncan | 2008 | 17 | 2.35 | 2.4 | 30.2% | 1 |
| Tim Duncan | 2009 | 5 | 2.14 | 0.6 | 38.1% | 1 |
| Tim Duncan | 2010 | 10 | -0.25 | 0.7 | 18.4% | 2 |
| Tim Duncan | 2011 | 6 | -0.07 | 0.4 | 17.8% | 3 |
| Tim Duncan | 2012 | 14 | 2.12 | 1.6 | 16.7% | 2 |
| Tim Duncan | 2013 | 14 | -0.39 | 0.9 | 7.3% | 6 |
| Tim Duncan | 2014 | 18 | 2.76 | 2.3 | 16.8% | 3 |
| Tim Duncan | 2015 | 7 | 5.56 | 1.4 | 40% | 1 |
| Tim Duncan | 2016 | 10 | -2.09 | 0.1 | 1.8% | 11 |
The story: Tim Duncan was a terrifying playoff force from the get-go. Until 2009, Tim Duncan was always a large part of his team's postseason success, and he was often the best player on the squad. In 2011 Tim Duncan's consistency waned, and he did put up some solid playoffs until 2016, it was hit and miss. In 2015, Tim Duncan was the best Spur in the playoffs. Unfortunately, that wasn't enough as they fell in the first round. Sadly his performance in 2016 was the worst of his career and a somewhat disappointing way to end a distinguished playoff career.
Kobe Bryant Playoffs (non-Finals) Numbers
| Player | Season | G | PoP48 | Wins Produced | Win % | Win % Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kobe Bryant | 1997 | 9 | -6.73 | -0.3 | -6.7% | 12 |
| Kobe Bryant | 1998 | 11 | -4.81 | -0.3 | -3.7% | 11 |
| Kobe Bryant | 1999 | 8 | 0.38 | 0.7 | 22.7% | 3 |
| Kobe Bryant | 2000 | 17 | 0.26 | 1.5 | 14.5% | 2 |
| Kobe Bryant | 2001 | 11 | 5.59 | 2.7 | 24.3% | 1 |
| Kobe Bryant | 2002 | 15 | -1.55 | 0.7 | 7.8% | 6 |
| Kobe Bryant | 2003 | 12 | -1.89 | 0.4 | 6.9% | 4 |
| Kobe Bryant | 2004 | 17 | 1.06 | 2.1 | 19.5% | 2 |
| Kobe Bryant | 2006 | 7 | -0.7 | 0.5 | 24.5% | 2 |
| Kobe Bryant | 2007 | 2 | -5.49 | -0.1 | -54.1% | 11 |
| Kobe Bryant | 2008 | 15 | 4.24 | 3 | 28% | 1 |
| Kobe Bryant | 2009 | 18 | 3.87 | 3.4 | 26.3% | 2 |
| Kobe Bryant | 2010 | 16 | 1.91 | 2.1 | 21.2% | 2 |
| Kobe Bryant | 2011 | 10 | -2.48 | 0.1 | 3.2% | 8 |
| Kobe Bryant | 2012 | 12 | -2.08 | 0.3 | 7.4% | 6 |
The Story: Kobe Bryant was not an immediate impact in the playoffs. In fact, of Kobe's 15 playoffs, his non-Finals performance in eight of them has been below average. His play was a large part of the Lakers success in six of them, however. And, lastly, he was only the best Laker in two of their playoff runs.
Tim Duncan Finals Numbers
| Player | Season | G | PoP48 | Wins Produced | Win % | Win % Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Duncan | 1999 | 5 | 5.41 | 1.3 | 39.7% | 1 |
| Tim Duncan | 2003 | 6 | 8.45 | 2 | 49.5% | 1 |
| Tim Duncan | 2005 | 7 | 1.19 | 0.8 | 26.4% | 3 |
| Tim Duncan | 2007 | 4 | 2.87 | 0.6 | 21.5% | 1 |
| Tim Duncan | 2013 | 7 | 2.94 | 1 | 27.8% | 2 |
| Tim Duncan | 2014 | 5 | 2.01 | 0.6 | 11.9% | 3 |
The story: If Tim Duncan's team makes the Finals then Tim Duncan is going to play great and be a top three player on the Spurs. At least, that was how it used to go. Tim Duncan was the best player on the Spurs in three of their Finals and did earn three Finals MVPs (although 2005 was Manu's, sorry Timmy!) The last Finals the Spurs took home Tim Duncan wasn't close to his peak levels, but was still a solid force.
Kobe Bryant Finals Numbers
| Player | Season | G | PoP48 | Wins Produced | Win % | Win % Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kobe Bryant | 2000 | 5 | -5.72 | -0.3 | -11.6% | 11 |
| Kobe Bryant | 2001 | 5 | -1.52 | 0.2 | 6.7% | 5 |
| Kobe Bryant | 2002 | 4 | 2.12 | 0.6 | 19.1% | 3 |
| Kobe Bryant | 2004 | 5 | -5.46 | -0.4 | -34.7% | 12 |
| Kobe Bryant | 2008 | 6 | -2.25 | 0.1 | 10.6% | 6 |
| Kobe Bryant | 2009 | 5 | 2.68 | 0.8 | 20.6% | 2 |
| Kobe Bryant | 2010 | 7 | 1.56 | 0.9 | 21.1% | 2 |
Alright, Lakers fans are going to hate this one. In the seven Lakers Finals appearances, Kobe's performance was downright terrible in four of them. In fact, in Kobe's first two rings, he was hurting the Lakers chances. In 2002, he finally did help Shaq and Robert Horry a good amount. In 2009 and 2010 Kobe was a good player and a solid contributor to Pau Gasol to take home two rings.
Tim Duncan Game Changing Numbers
A fun stat I came up with working with Art Rondeau was the notion of a "game changer." Basically, if we take a player's Points over Par and replace it with an average player's (Points over Par of 0) then would the outcome of the game have changed? And this concept cuts both ways. In some cases, it would have been better to have an average player performance than our players. With that in mind, I broke down how many games would have changed had Tim Duncan been replaced by an average player.
Tim Duncan's Regular Season Game Changing Numbers by Season
| Player | Season | Wins to Loss game Changers | Loss to Wins Game Changers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Duncan | 1998 | 8 | 1 |
| Tim Duncan | 1999 | 1 | 3 |
| Tim Duncan | 2000 | 9 | 5 |
| Tim Duncan | 2001 | 6 | 4 |
| Tim Duncan | 2002 | 12 | 3 |
| Tim Duncan | 2003 | 20 | 1 |
| Tim Duncan | 2004 | 7 | 2 |
| Tim Duncan | 2005 | 5 | 0 |
| Tim Duncan | 2006 | 6 | 0 |
| Tim Duncan | 2007 | 7 | 1 |
| Tim Duncan | 2008 | 10 | 3 |
| Tim Duncan | 2009 | 10 | 2 |
| Tim Duncan | 2010 | 4 | 0 |
| Tim Duncan | 2011 | 11 | 0 |
| Tim Duncan | 2012 | 5 | 0 |
| Tim Duncan | 2013 | 10 | 2 |
| Tim Duncan | 2014 | 5 | 1 |
| Tim Duncan | 2015 | 5 | 3 |
| Tim Duncan | Total | 141 | 31 |
Tim Duncan's Playoffs (non-Finals) Game Changing Numbers by Season
| Player | Season | Wins to Loss game Changers | Loss to Wins Game Changers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Duncan | 1998 | 0 | 1 |
| Tim Duncan | 1999 | 2 | 0 |
| Tim Duncan | 2001 | 1 | 1 |
| Tim Duncan | 2003 | 3 | 0 |
| Tim Duncan | 2005 | 1 | 0 |
| Tim Duncan | 2006 | 2 | 0 |
| Tim Duncan | 2007 | 4 | 0 |
| Tim Duncan | 2008 | 1 | 0 |
| Tim Duncan | 2012 | 1 | 0 |
| Tim Duncan | 2014 | 1 | 0 |
| Tim Duncan | 2015 | 1 | 0 |
| Tim Duncan | 2016 | 0 | 2 |
| Tim Duncan | Total | 17 | 4 |
Tim Duncan's Finals Game Changing Numbers by Season
| Player | Season | Wins to Loss game Changers | Loss to Wins Game Changers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Duncan | 2003 | 2 | 1 |
| Tim Duncan | 2005 | 1 | 0 |
| Tim Duncan | 2007 | 1 | 0 |
| Tim Duncan | Total | 4 | 1 |
Tim Duncan ended his career with an impressive 4-1 ratio in all game types. Playoffs wise, Tim Duncan only had two seasons his winning game changers didn't outnumbers his losing game changers: his first and his last.
Kobe Bryant Game Changing Numbers
Of course, we're doing the same for Kobe! Will he look as good as Tim Duncan? Of course not!
Kobe Bryant's Regular Season Game Changing Numbers by Season
| Player | Season | Wins to Loss game Changers | Loss to Wins Game Changers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kobe Bryant | 1997 | 2 | 0 |
| Kobe Bryant | 1998 | 2 | 1 |
| Kobe Bryant | 1999 | 3 | 1 |
| Kobe Bryant | 2000 | 7 | 3 |
| Kobe Bryant | 2001 | 8 | 7 |
| Kobe Bryant | 2002 | 6 | 5 |
| Kobe Bryant | 2003 | 7 | 2 |
| Kobe Bryant | 2004 | 8 | 1 |
| Kobe Bryant | 2005 | 6 | 4 |
| Kobe Bryant | 2006 | 4 | 11 |
| Kobe Bryant | 2007 | 14 | 7 |
| Kobe Bryant | 2008 | 9 | 5 |
| Kobe Bryant | 2009 | 5 | 2 |
| Kobe Bryant | 2010 | 7 | 5 |
| Kobe Bryant | 2011 | 7 | 5 |
| Kobe Bryant | 2012 | 4 | 7 |
| Kobe Bryant | 2013 | 7 | 7 |
| Kobe Bryant | 2015 | 1 | 4 |
| Kobe Bryant | 2016 | 3 | 8 |
| Kobe Bryant | Total | 110 | 85 |
Kobe Byrant's Playoffs (non-Finals) Game Changing Numbers by Season
| Player | Season | Wins to Loss game Changers | Loss to Wins Game Changers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kobe Bryant | 1997 | 0 | 1 |
| Kobe Bryant | 1998 | 0 | 1 |
| Kobe Bryant | 1999 | 1 | 0 |
| Kobe Bryant | 2000 | 1 | 0 |
| Kobe Bryant | 2001 | 1 | 0 |
| Kobe Bryant | 2002 | 2 | 1 |
| Kobe Bryant | 2003 | 0 | 2 |
| Kobe Bryant | 2004 | 2 | 0 |
| Kobe Bryant | 2007 | 0 | 1 |
| Kobe Bryant | 2008 | 2 | 0 |
| Kobe Bryant | 2009 | 2 | 1 |
| Kobe Bryant | 2010 | 2 | 1 |
| Kobe Bryant | 2011 | 0 | 1 |
| Kobe Bryant | 2012 | 1 | 1 |
| Kobe Bryant | Total | 14 | 10 |
Kobe Byrant's Finals Game Changing Numbers by Season
| Player | Season | Wins to Loss game Changers | Loss to Wins Game Changers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kobe Bryant | 2001 | 0 | 1 |
| Kobe Bryant | 2004 | 0 | 1 |
| Kobe Bryant | 2008 | 1 | 0 |
| Kobe Bryant | Total | 1 | 2 |
Kobe's resume of game changers is a bit different. In the regular season, his game changers for wins outnumbers losses 110 to 85. In the non-Finals playoffs it was 14-10, and in the Finals, I was surprised only to see three games where it all came down to Kobe. Of course, the ratio is in the wrong direction, which is nothing surprising.
Summing Up
There you go, two amazing careers side by side! Looking at Duncan's career, I am amazed by his dominance and longevity. I am impressed by Kobe's longevity, and he was a key part of a great franchise. That said, hopefully, as time goes on, people won't confuse which player deserves which distinction.
-Dre