So the surprise team of the season so far are the Philidelphia 76ers. And everyone seems to be struggling to figure out why. Today on Truehoop Bullets, Henry Abbott asks:
"The 76ers must have some secret, right? Some reason this middling team has started killing everybody? Andre Iguodala spilled the beans on Twitter."
Is it really so mystifying why the 76ers are so surprisingly good this year (in retrospect, I mean)? I think I answered this question a couple of weeks ago quite clearly: Spencer Hawes is playing out of his mind. What's surprising (to me at least) is that he still is; to be honest, I laughed at Devin Digham when he grabbed Hawes off the waiver wire in my fantasy league (and I was not the only one). Yeah, my smile is fading fast. And obviously nobody predicted he'd put up numbers like this, but looking at the box scores (whether you are a WP-advocate or not) it's pretty hard to deny that Hawes' improvement is clearly the reason; last year, the sixers had a center who contributed nearly nothing, and this year, in 13 games, they have one who is playing like an MVP.
| Raw Stats | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Min | WP48 | Wins | PTS | REB | AST | TO | BLK | STL | PF | |
| Hawes | 323 | .306 | 2.1 | 18.6 | 15.8 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 4.6 |
| Average C | 287 | .099 | 0.6 | 17.5 | 13.2 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 4.8 |
| Shooting Efficiency | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FG% | 2FG% | 3FG% | FT% | eFG% | TS% | FGA | PPS | FTA | |
| Hawes | 58.8% | 60.4% | 33.3% | 56.2% | 59.8% | 60.1% | 14.4 | 1.29 | 2.4 |
| Average C | 49.3% | 50.1% | 29.4% | 66.4% | 49.8% | 53.4% | 14.1 | 1.24 | 5.1 |
This reminds me of something that Dre brought up yesterday in a Wages of Wins comment. Basketball performance, as Wins Produced sees it, is remarkably consistent over time and barring injuries, but there are two things that are really hard to predict: one is when a player will "fall off the performance cliff" thanks to age. The other is when (or if) a young player will make the quantum leap from average (or bad) rookie to star/superstar.
When it comes to age taking its toll, we know it gets more likely after the age of 30, and we know that once it starts happening, it's more-or-less irreversible and that it is pretty sudden, but when precisely it starts is very hard; this year's candidates appear to be Duncan and Garnett, but then there are guys like Steve Nash and Jason Kidd who, though they aren't at MVP levels anymore, are still ridiculously good for their age. Hakeem looked like he was immune to aging, until, one day, he wasn't. We can say that players that rely on athleticism tend to be more susceptible to the effect of age, but then guys like Michael Jordan, who presumably relied a LOT on his athleticism, put up MVP numbers in his mid-30s.
As for young players making big leaps, examples are Kevin Durant (who was a terrible rookie and a "meh" 2nd year player, but a superstar 3rd-year player), Derrick Rose (who went from "not bad" rookie to superstar sophomore), Kevin Love (who went from "really really good" sophomore to "MVP-class" 3rd year player by adding 40% 3-point accuracy), and LeBron James (people seem to forget that as a rookie, he was an inefficient scorer with lots of turnovers, but every part of his game took a huge leap forward in his sophomore year). For each of those, however, there are young players who never make "the jump". My favorite poster child is Michael Beasley but I'm sure all of you have at least one guy on your favorite team that you can think of who mystifyingly just got "stuck" (or even regressed).
In any case, this year's candidate for surprise leap appears to be Mr. Hawes (honorable mention to Mr. Harden, but unlike Hawes, we kind of all expected Harden to get better).
| Careers per-48 Stats | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | Min | WP48 | Wins | PTS | REB | AST | TO | BLK | STL | PF |
| 07-08 SAC | 931 | -.048 | -0.9 | 17.2 | 11.9 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 6.6 |
| 08-09 SAC | 2259 | -.032 | -1.5 | 18.6 | 11.7 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 5.3 |
| 09-10 SAC | 1904 | .010 | 0.4 | 18.2 | 11.0 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 5.0 |
| 10-11 PHI | 1717 | .011 | 0.4 | 16.3 | 13.0 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 5.6 |
| 11-12 PHI | 323 | .306 | 2.1 | 18.6 | 15.8 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 4.6 |
| Career Avg | 1426 | .003 | 0.1 | 17.8 | 12.0 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 5.4 |
| Average C | 1226 | .099 | 2.5 | 18.2 | 13.0 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 5.3 |
| Career Shooting Efficiency | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FG% | 2FG% | 3FG% | FT% | eFG% | TS% | FGA | PPS | FTA | ||
| Hawes 07-08 | 45.9% | 47.8% | 19.0% | 65.5% | 46.5% | 48.6% | 16.4 | 1.05 | 3.0 | |
| Hawes 08-09 | 46.6% | 48.6% | 34.8% | 66.2% | 49.1% | 50.9% | 17.0 | 1.09 | 2.9 | |
| Hawes 09-10 | 46.8% | 49.4% | 29.9% | 68.9% | 48.8% | 50.7% | 16.8 | 1.09 | 2.7 | |
| Hawes 10-11 | 46.5% | 48.0% | 24.3% | 53.4% | 47.3% | 48.1% | 15.9 | 1.03 | 2.5 | |
| Hawes 11-12 | 58.8% | 60.4% | 33.3% | 56.2% | 59.8% | 60.1% | 14.4 | 1.29 | 2.4 | |
| Hawes (career) | 47.0% | 49.1% | 30.5% | 63.6% | 48.7% | 50.3% | 16.5 | 1.08 | 2.7 | |
| Average C | 51.1% | 51.8% | 32.4% | 68.4% | 51.7% | 55.4% | 14.1 | 1.29 | 5.3 | |
In 13 games, Hawes has already eclipsed his wins produced in all 4 previous seasons combined. And looking at the numbers, it is easy to see why. His shooting numbers have gone from abyssmal to good, his rebounding has gone from bad to good, his fouls and turnovers have gone down, and his assist numbers are up.
It is these non-shooting factors that encourage me to think that he might just be for real, despite the small sample size (although, for the record, I don't think he's going to keep up the MVP-level production); shooting is subject to a lot more variance than other factors; it's very easy to get caught up in the randomness of small sample sizes when you are evaluating player performance based on shooting; it's why I think the jury is still out on some rookies. But I might add that his FGAs are down as well, which means he might just be practicing better shot selection, and not taking bad shots is just as important to winning as not fouling and not turning the ball over.
I'm not the first to point this out, by the way. I'm not even the second one (but I got even with Devin by nabbing Markieff Morris) . So yeah, the "secret", I think, is mostly Spencer Hawes. I wonder; when opposing defenses start to catch on, and take Hawes seriously, will he crumble? Or is he for real? What say you?