The Northwest Division is the division with the weirdest geography -- only one of its teams is actually in the Northwest!

Utah Jazz

Additions: Grayson Allen, Isaac Haas, Isaiah Cousins, Jairus Lyles, Tyler Cavanaugh

Subtractions: Eric Griffin, David Stockton, Jonas Jerebko, Joel Bolomboy, Erik McCree, Joe Johnson

Vegas Over/Under: 50

My take:

The Utah Jazz more-or-less stood pat over the offseason. For many teams, that would have been a mistake, but in the Jazz' case, I like the decision, because unlike most teams, the Jazz were a team that finished exceptionally strong, and who had a few late-season additions such as Jae Crowder that one could view in the same light as an offseason acquisition.

There's been a repeating theme the last few seasons: the success of the Jazz is tied to the ability of Rudy Gobert to stay healthy. When Gobert plays, he is a dominating force on the defensive end who literally forces teams to abandon their usual game plan. As much as we love role players like Rubio and Ingles and budding star players like Mitchell, Gobert is the key. If he stays healthy, the Jazz are title contenders. If he misses 25 or more games, they will once again be a good-but-not-great team.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Additions: Abdel Nader, Abdul Gaddy, Dennis Schroder, Deonte Burton, Hamidou Diallo, K.J. McDaniels, Nerlens Noel, Richard Solomon, Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot, Tyler Davis

Subtractions: Chris Wright, Semaj Christon, Nick Collison, Daniel Hamilton, Josh Huestis, Kyle Singler, Yanick Moreira, Rashawn Thomas, Markel Brown, Dakari Johnson, PJ Dozier, Carmelo Anthony, Corey Brewer, Isaiah Canaan

Vegas Over/Under: 48.5

My take:

This Thunder team seems largely the same caliber as last year's squad. Yes, there's some addition-by-subtraction going on with the departure of Carmelo Anthony, but there are no additions that seem likely to move the needle in a significant fashion. I love Noel, but he plays the same position as Adams, who is easily in the top 5 conversations at the center position, so he's unlikely to make a huge difference, although he is a welcome presence off of the bench.

It feels like the over/under is pretty precisely placed here; I'd be tempted to take the under just because the West is tough, but I'd happily fade this bet. I don't think the investment that OKC made in Paul George was a wise bet. He's slightly overpaid right now, but by the end of that contract, it will be a huge albatross.

Denver Nuggets

Additions: DeVaughn Akoon-Purcell, Donald Sloan, Emanuel Terry, Isaiah Thomas, Jarred Vanderbilt, Michael Porter Jr., Thomas Welsh, Xavier Silas

Subtractions: Jameer Nelson, Darrell Arthur, Josh Childress, Emmanuel Mudiay, Kenneth Faried, Devin Harris, Richard Jefferson, Wilson Chandler

Vegas Over/Under: 47.5

My take:

The Nuggets were a very good team that came on strong at the end of last season, and they have a dominant big man who's likely to keep improving. These are reasons to be optimistic. There's also the outside chance that Isaiah Thomas can make a comeback (but the nature of his injury would worry me).

Furthermore, it is about damn time that the team moved on from the mediocrity of Wilson Chandler (made worse by the fact that he was constantly playing out of position at power forward), and there's hope that this provides the team some upside potential.

But it's hard for me to find the 5-10 extra wins on this roster that bumps the team to contending status, barring the aforementioned comeback of Thomas. I think the over/under is pretty precise.

Portland Trail Blazers

Additions: Anfernee Simons, Cameron Oliver, Chinanu Onuaku, Gary Payton II, Gary Trent Jr., Nik Stauskas, Seth Curry

Subtractions: Ed Davis, Brandon Rush, Shabazz Napier, Anthony Morrow, CJ Wilcox, Noah Vonleh, Georgios Papagiannis, Archie Goodwin, Pat Connaughton, Isaiah Briscoe

Vegas Over/Under: 41.5

My take:

I can't help feeling that the Trailblazers were huge overachievers last year, and letting some key role players go while replacing them with unproven talent, is unlikely to improve their outlook. I bet the under on the team in Vegas this year, and although it's probably going to be close, I don't regret that decision. Given how competitive the West will be, it's hard to see how this team can ride Damian Lillard's coattails to more than 40 wins.

I like Nurkic, but he's not in the same league as some of the other dominant big men in the West offensively, and he suffers from the same defensive liabilities. The Blazers have real spacing problems, with a lot of lineups where only Lillard and McCollum are threats from deep, and Lillard is a bigger threat with the ball in his hands, which means there aren't a lot of targets for him to pass to beyond the arc. They'll compete for the 8th spot, but I think that is the ceiling.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Additions: Anthony Tolliver, C.J. Williams, Darius Johnson-Odom, James Nunnally, Jared Terrell, Jonathan Stark, Josh Okogie, Keita Bates-Diop, Luol Deng

Subtractions: Aaron Brooks, Cole Aldrich, Marcus Georges-Hunt, Amile Jefferson, Melo Trimble, Nemanja Bjelica, Anthony Brown, Shabazz Muhammad, Jamal Crawford

Vegas Over/Under: 41.5

My take:

This is my pick to finish last in the division. There are two factors at play here. One is the massive incompetence of Tom Thibodeau, who has displayed a remarkable ineptitude to change with the times, and the other is, of course, the Jimmy Butler situation, which at best will result in chaos in the locker room, and at worst with the team trading him for pennies on the dollar and initiating yet another "rebuild".

Minnesota seems to have a knack for drafting dominant big men (Garnett, Love, Towns) and then surrounding them with poor-to-mediocre talent. The maximum contract that the team gave to Andrew Wiggins is likely to go down as the single worst financial decision in team history (seriously...who was going to give Wiggins anywhere near that money this year if they'd simply allowed him to put himself on the restricted free agency market? Would he have gotten an offer sheet for even half that?). And, yes, I am aware that this is the same team that tried to cheat the CBA for Joe Smith.

On paper, this is a good team. It has a dominant big man and a top 5 wing. But in reality, Thibodeau is going to give Derrick Rose more minutes than Tyus Jones, will play Andrew Wiggins the most minutes in the NBA again, and will instruct his defenses to ICE all the way into "most three-pointers allowed" territory again.

Even if Butler stays, it is hard to see this team winning 45 games.