There's an annual October tradition here at Boxscore Geeks wherein I, your intrepid gambler, travel to Vegas and place a bunch of bets on the upcoming NBA Season. I call it The Boxscore Geeks Portfolio because it sounds way fancier than the Patrick Blows His Money Away Again Scheme. That is, the portfolio's annualized returns fare poorly against other investment options such as "stuffing your money under your mattress," "Investing in your friend's pancake restaurant startup," or just "playing poker".
Nevertheless, it's fun! Fun for you, as you get to ridicule my foolish attempts to beat the wisdom of the crowd. Fun for me, because I get to rub the one thing I get right in everyone's faces (there's always one gem, every year).
Before we get to the bets themselves, a reminder of the rules:
- No more than 10% of the portfolio on any one bet (I've broken this rule in the past; I think the first iteration had 15% of the portfolio on the Knicks under in 2013-14, the closest to "printing money" any Vegas bet will ever get).
- Avoid hedging (e.g., Betting the under on a team while betting on it to win the division). Don't confuse this with middling, which is fine.
- Include a few long shots (so far, none have ever paid out, but this is why they are called long shots. Will I live long enough to ride out the variance?)
Ok. With that out of the way, here are this year's bets:
| Team | Type | $ | % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | UNDER 25.5 | $100.00 | 2.5% | -110 |
| BOS | UNDER 54.5 | $200.00 | 5.0% | -110 |
| BRK | OVER 28.5 | $100.00 | 2.5% | -110 |
| CHA | OVER 42.5 | $200.00 | 5.0% | -110 |
| CLE | UNDER 54.5 | $200.00 | 5.0% | -110 |
| DEN | OVER 45.5 | $200.00 | 5.0% | -110 |
| DET | OVER 38.5 | $100.00 | 2.5% | -110 |
| HOU | OVER 55.5 | $100.00 | 2.5% | -110 |
| IND | OVER 31.5 | $100.00 | 2.5% | -110 |
| LAC | OVER 45 | $200.00 | 5.0% | -110 |
| MEM | UNDER 37.5 | $100.00 | 2.5% | -110 |
| NOR | OVER 39.5 | $200.00 | 5.0% | -110 |
| NYK | OVER 29 | $200.00 | 5.0% | -110 |
| OKC | UNDER 53.5 | $200.00 | 5.0% | -110 |
| ORL | OVER 32.5 | $200.00 | 5.0% | -110 |
| POR | UNDER 43.5 | $100.00 | 2.5% | -110 |
| UTH | OVER 41 | $200.00 | 5.0% | -110 |
| WAS | UNDER 49 | $100.00 | 2.5% | -110 |
| Dennis Smith Jr | ROY | $100.00 | 2.5% | +400 |
| Lonzo Ball | ROY | $100.00 | 2.5% | +350 |
| FIELD | CHAMP | $400.00 | 10% | +190 |
| MIL | DIV | $100.00 | 2.5% | +600 |
| PHI | DIV | $100.00 | 2.5% | +1000 |
| TOR | DIV | $100.00 | 2.5% | +375 |
| UTH | DIV | $100.00 | 2.5% | +3000 |
| CHI | PLAYOFF | $100.00 | 2.5% | +1600 |
| IND | PLAYOFF | $100.00 | 2.5% | +375.00 |
| TOTAL | $4,000.00 | 100% | ||
Max possiple payout: $15,005.45
Here are some further thoughts on each bet:
Rookie of the Year: Lonzo Ball or Dennis Smith, Jr.
You'll notice I didn't take the most popular pick, Ben Simmons (the odds were +300). Even though I think he's a great candidate, I didn't like the odds, so I took a more indirect approach on that, with a hat tip to Arturo for the idea: If Simmons is really the rookie of the year, then it's probably going to lead to Philly blowing everyone's projection out of the water. Thus, think of the 10-to-1 bet on Philly to win the Atlantic as a sort of proxy for a Simmons Rookie of the Year bet.
As for Ball and Smith: they are, in my mind, the next obvious choices. They're going to get lots of playing time and were both very good in college. Of the two, I think Smith Jr. is the more likely to lead in points per game, which is usually the deciding factor in voters' minds, but Ball will, of course, have the biggest media exposure and is more likely to be seen on SportsCenter nightly...but Smith, Jr. can certainly make some highlight reels.
At this moment it kind of feels unlikely that none of those three win Rookie of the Year, so I feel good about these bets.
Atlanta Under 25.5
I've covered this in my preview of the Southeast: Atlanta shipped out nearly all of its win-producing players, and didn't import many wins. This is a pretty bad team, and to make matters worse, it's pretty likely they are going to care more about a "top" 3 lottery position than anything else, which means playing youth over veterans and resting more valuable players aggressively.
Boston Under 54.5
This is largely a foregone conclusion, thanks to Hayward's terrible injury, but even before that happened I felt pretty good about this bet. Hayward is a good player, but people are discounting the wins lost by shipping out Crowder, and are probably overvaluing Irving's impact. Irving is certainly a good player, in some years he's even been very good, but he's treated like an all-NBA-caliber player, which is just off the mark. It's not that I don't think they are (were?) a good team, they absolutely are, it's just a reasonable bet that they weren't that improved from one year ago.
Now it looks like Jaylen Brown will get a ton of minutes in Hayward's place, and that's not a good omen. I think they can still make the playoffs, but in the absense of a trade or a Rookie-of-the-year season from Tatum, the division title or even 50 wins seems out of the question.
Brooklyn Over 28.5
Injury luck swings both ways...this was largely a bet on the return of Jeremy Lin bringing stability to the point guard situation, and that, just like last year, the team has no reason to tank and is full of journeyman players who'd like to play themselves into bigger, better contracts. Crabbe, Carroll, Booker, Mozgov are all quality NBA rotation players, even if none of them are stars.
Even without Lin, I still think there's a good chance here. This team is probably going to show up and drub some lottery teams in February and March because they're experienced and have no reason not to play hard most nights. A big factor will be whether or not Russell makes an improvement this year.
Charlotte Over 42.5
Everybody underestimates Dwight's impact. He's no longer an MVP candidate, but he's certainly an all-star, and Clifford is the kind of coach that knows how to take advantage of his strengths on the defensive end. He'll make a big splash. Batum will be missed, but here's hoping MKG can stay healthy. I think it will come down whether the rookies play, and/or how much playing time they get if they don't.
I'm willing to anoint Dwayne Bacon as an early contender for the All-Rookie team, but unfortunately Malik Monk is, so far in short minutes, one of the worst rookies, trailing only the spectacularly abysmal Donovan Mitchell (side question: why does coach Quinn let him shoot so much!?).
Cleveland Under 54.5
Fun fact: if you bet the under on Cleveland during each of the LeBron 2.0 years, you'd be batting 1.000. This number is consistently way too high, given that LeBron definitely does some coasting in the regular season. The Cavs have only won 54 once in his second tenure.
In addition, the team got a little worse. Replacing Irving with Thomas might normally be close to a wash, but Thomas won't play until at least January, and whether he'll have the same athleticism as before is questionable. Crowder is a solid player, but so was Jefferson, and he of course plays the same position as James, and if they're making room for Crowder to play by moving Thompson to the bench....ouch. Also, you just know Jeff Green is going to find a way to cost this team wins. That guy's whole career is just inexplicable to me.
Don't get me wrong, I think they're clearly still favorites to win the East, for LeBron reasons, but I've no qualms about this under bet.
Denver Over 45.5
This one I feel a little queezy about, and to be honest I think the fact that I spent 5% instead of 2.5% on this one is probably a betting error (sometimes, when you're at the window, things get mixed up as odds change at the last minute. You try to adjust on the fly by betting less in one spot, more in another, because you really don't want to got back to the end of the line and recalculate. This is when mistakes happen). I still feel ok about this because I actually like the Millsap addition and I think we can bank on small improvements from Barton, Harris and Chandler (that last one mostly from -- *crosses fingers* -- not playing out of position at the 4). Plus, I don't like to bet against dominant big men.
Having said that, there's a lot of overlap amonst their best players, all of whom are bigs, and their point guard situation is awful. This is the one saving grace behind the idea that the team is shopping Kenneth Faried: maybe they can get a point guard who can shoot above 50% eFG and doesn't turn the ball over? That alone might be worth 3 extra wins. We'll see how this one shakes out.
Detroit Over 38.5
This one is pretty marginal. It boils down to the fact that they won 37 last year, and I think losing Marcus Morris made them better, not worse. I like the additions of Galloway and Harris, and Drummond is still a monster. I think the fact that both Chicago and Indiana got a little bit worse helps as well, both because of the games they play against them and because it keeps them in the divison/playoff hunt longer, which might make games during February more competitive. Not much else to say here.
Houston Over 55.5
Man, I hate taking over bets when the win total is this high (I've been burned by the Spurs so often), but holy hell is Houston a good team. Is it possible that Chris Paul is underrated, despite being easily one of the top 5 most recognizable basketball players on the planet? This team has everything you need to dominate: two superstars, a budding superstar big man (if I could have bet on Cappela making his first all-star appearance, I would have), and a bunch of efficient role players who don't need the ball in their hands to be effective.
I think concerns about Paul and Harden each needing touches are overrated. First, both are among the best passers in the game, second, both are pretty deadly targets behind the three-point line when they don't have the ball, and finally, there are usually enough touches to go around for two ballhogs, and the team doesn't really have a third one. The apt and obvious comparison is the Wade-LeBron Heat era.
The only reason not to bet the over on this team is the spectre of injuries. That's no small concern on a roster that features Chris Paul, but given that I think the team is headed for the low 60s if it stays healthy, the over still feels like a bet you should not pass up.
Indiana Over 31.5
This isn't a great team, but wow are folks overreacting to the Paul George departure. Miles Turner had a good sophomore season, and there's every reason to think he'll improve, Oladipo is solid even if he hasn't yet lived up to his hype out of college, and Darren Collison is no slouch, even if he's a downgrade from Teague.
They're young, they'll stumble a bit, but 35 feels like the right number to me.
Los Angeles Clippers Over 45
So it's weird that I just talked about how awesome Chris Paul is, yet I'm taking the over on the team he just left. What gives?
Patrick Beverly doesn't suck. He's no Chris Paul, but he's also no Austin Rivers. And it looks like Doc is smart enough not to give the starting job to Austin. Maybe getting fired from one half of his job has made him worry about the other half. I also really like Willi Reed (I'd actually forgotten that the Heat let him go...why does he keep bouncing around?) and Lou Williams, chucker though he is, has been a fairly productive player throughout his career.
In reality this is mostly a bet that Griffin and Jordan both stay healthy for a whole year. I think this one is actually kind of close, and in the, end I decided to to $200 instead of $100 just because several other models agreed with my analysis. I tend to look for either huge gaps between my expectations and Vegas' (Utah!) or in a broad consensus between multiple models that all trend in the same direction. The Clippers fall into the latter category.
Memphis Under 37.5
I'm not thrilled about this number, and was a lot happier when it was 39, but damn, I've been waiting for Memphis to collapse for a few years now. It feels like the weight of aging players combined with the chance that management throws in the towel are too much to resist, year after year.
The starting lineup is great, but seems fragile, with Parsons returning from a major injury and Gasol getting older. Like every other team ever, they don't give Brandan Wright enough minutes. The aging veterans that departed were actually still pretty good last year.
But it looks like they're starting 2017 strong, so Memphis will probably continue to surprise and disappoint me.
New Orleans Over 39.5
I may regret this one. I've always loved Tony Allen, but maybe age is catching up with him (how ironic that I kept betting on that when he was in Memphis, and now....). I love Anthony Davis, but he's never been the problem. It might be optimistic to think the Cousins can clean up his worst tendencies now that he's not the alpha dog.
That's a complicated combination of events that needs to happen for me to get paid. Wait, who put me in charge of this portfolio?
New York Knicks Over 29
This is another weird one, and also may have been too close of a call to put $200 on. Again it came down to a consensus between several models lending me a little more confidence.
This is not a good team at all, but what it boils down to is that I was tempted to buy the under *before* the Melo trade, when the number was at 32.5, but was feeling that I'd rather have the number be about 34. Then, after the Melo trade, the number moved to 28.5. So then, here's the thing, as I said in my preview of The Atlantic, I don't think the Melo trade actually changed the Knicks' expected win total one way or the other. Meaning, if I didn't like the under at 32.5 because it was "too close", then, by extension, I should like the over at 29 (because we think the "real" number is 32...ish). I've a feeling I'll be sweating this one.
OKC Under 53.5
I feel pretty good about this one, and that's not just hindsight after seeing the first few games. Carmelo Anthony is on the bad side of age and injuries, and was fairly overrated in his prime. Paul George is a good player who hasn't lived up to his all-NBA reputation since his major leg injury (this may be partly because he was asked to play power forward too much in Indiana).
Kanter had defensive flaws but was a force on the offensive boards and could score efficiently. The team hasn't really replaced what he brought to the table. Russell Westbrook will still keep this team competitive, but if he gets injured, you can forget the playoffs, much less 50 wins.
Portland Under 43.5
Another marginal one. Mostly I think Plumlee is pretty underrated, and Nurkic overrated. Crabbe was a solid player last year too. It feels like this team is ever-so-slightly worse than last year, yet the O/U predicts a 3 win improvement, so it seems like a good bet.
If I'm wrong here, it will be because McCollum makes a big leap, Nurkic makes a huge leap, or Lillard puts in an MVP candidacy.
Utah Over 41
Several things are going on here. Hayward was a very good player, who produced 12 wins last year. Hill was a good player who produced 5. Average players would have produced about 6-7 at their positions, so you'd think the 10-win difference from last year's 51 would be a fair evaluation.
But here's the thing: Ricky Rubio is no average player. In fact, he produced more wins that Hill last year and was Minnesota's second-best player. This alone would more than justify taking the over at 41, but there's another factor here, and his name is Derrick Favors. Favors was a consistently above-average player before last year's injury-ridden season. Since player performance tend to be pretty consistent over time, Favors is not old, and his injuries weren't career-threatening, there's a lot of reason to feel confident about him having a bounce back season.
So what we need for this bet is a few extra wins from Ricky Rubio and Derrick Favors. I like those odds.
Washington Under 49
Another small marginal one, that I now feel a little less confident about. Beal and Porter are in those years where the upward trajectory sometimes takes on parabolic growth, and this is certainly a bet against that. But I really don't like this team's depth (especially in the front court), and that's usually a big factor that makes the difference between "good" and "great" in the regular season (in the playoffs, it matters less, as coaches roll longer with their best players).
All of this might not matter; Washington certainly came on strong last year after a sluggish start, so far Porter looks like he's on track for a breakout season, and Gortat isn't showing any signs of age. Perhaps I should have gone the other way with this one!
The Field vs. GSW
The only reason this bet is $400 and not, like, $2000 is because of the 10% rule. I couldn't believe Vegas is giving +190 on this bet. There must be a *lot* of fishy money betting on the Warriors to win for Vegas to make this side so attractive.
While it's clear that the Warriors are the team to beat, and that they are very likely the best team in the NBA, it should also be clear to everyone that navigating an 82 game season and then beating 4 playoff teams in 7-game series involves a lot of variance. First, there are injuries to avoid. Next, there's the simple fact that the worst team sometimes wins. I did the math on this last year, but if you assume that the Warriors are 99% likely to win in the first round, then 80% in the second, 70% in the semis, and 65% in the finals, they would have only about a 36% chance of winning it all. But let's say, for argument's sake, that those odds are too generous, and you think they are bigger favorites in each series. It turns out I have a huge margin for error because the field is getting nearly 2:1 on this bet, which means that the "break even" point is if the Warrior's win the NBA title about 65% of the time.
I think the chances that one of San Antonio, Cleveland, or Houston wins is at least 33%. This bet is a no-brainer.
Milwaukee to win the Central
I didn't like either the over or the under here. But at 6:1 this feels like a solid gamble on a) Giannis having a breakout season (through 4 games, verdict is: WOW), especially given that Cleveland looks a little vulnerable this year, and LeBron is more likely to save his energy for the playoffs. It's marginal.
Philadelphia to win the Atlantic
As I said above, this is really a sort of proxy bet for Ben Simmons being the rookie of the year. Which, so far, he is easily on pace for! Unfortunately, Markelle Fultz is also in competition to be the worst rookie of the year, and Dario Saric still looks awful, so the wins aren't coming, and they probably won't until/unless Coach Braun realizes that McConnell needs to be get the lion's share of minutes instead and that The Process is over, so he doesn't have to give terrible young players mile-long leashes.
McConnell is a much better fit for this team. The team doesn't need shooting from its point guard -- it wants Simmons, Reddick, and Embiid to score. It needs a guy who looks to pass first. Having said that, it's hard to imagine that Saric and Fultz can continue to shoot so miserably (or that the coach will keep letting them shoot if they do).
Toronto to win the Atlantic
At nearly 4:1, this is another no-brainer. This division felt like a 50:50 toss up with Boston even before Hayward's injury. Maybe it was 60:40 for Boston. But there's no way a team that is projected to win 48 should be a 4:1 dog to win any division in the Eastern conference. Those are ridiculous odds.
Utah to win the Northwest
My favorite bet, actually. It feels like 15:1 or 20:1 might be fair odds for this, but 30:1 is just madness. The Northwest is easily the weakest division in the west. Aside from Portland, all of the teams have a lot of roster churn. As I indicate above, folks are going a little crazy about the changes in Minnesota and OKC. I think we're already seeing evidence in the first week that Teague isn't really an upgrade over Rubio, so banking on Minnesota to win 50 is a little rich even with Butler, and with OKC...well, if Westbrook misses significant playing time, things are going to be rough there. 48 wins might win this division.
This is, of course, a classic long shot but I really believe that 30:1 odds were whack. I think Utah's chances are closer to between 5 and 10 percent than 3.3%.
Chicago to make the Playoffs
I know -- not looking great so far! The problem here is that a decision point will come pretty early in the season where the Bulls won't even pretend to try anymore. For this bet to have positive expectation, they'd need to start out the gate with a surprising run. If they aren't competitive early, they won't make any mid-season runs.
Looking at this roster know, I gotta tell you, I'm not sure what the hell I was thinking. Who put me in charge again?
Indiana to make the playoffs
Now, this one I like. It is the East, and 38-40 wins probably wins the eighth seed. And I've already bet the over on this team, so it feels like a solid gamble almost five-to-one. They've got some solid vets, they have some young players who could break out, they're well-coached, and I really don't think there's any interest in tanking among management.
So...that's the rundown. Any bets you thought I missed? Any thoughts on how foolishly I invest my money?