Here are the bets:
| $ | Team | Standing | PyW/L | Bet | Odds | Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $400 (10.0%) | Field vs. GSW | 60 - 22 | CHAMP | +190 | ||
| $200 (5.0%) | CHA | 34 - 41 | 37 - 45 | > 42.5 | -110 | $0 |
| $200 (5.0%) | DEN | 40 - 34 | 44 - 38 | > 45.5 | -110 | |
| $200 (5.0%) | CLE | 44 - 29 | 48 - 34 | < 54.5 | -110 | $381.82 |
| $200 (5.0%) | BOS | 51 - 23 | 56 - 26 | < 54.5 | -110 | |
| $200 (5.0%) | LAC | 39 - 34 | 43 - 39 | > 45.0 | -110 | |
| $200 (5.0%) | ORL | 22 - 51 | 25 - 57 | > 32.5 | -110 | $0 |
| $200 (5.0%) | NOR | 43 - 31 | 47 - 35 | > 39.5 | -110 | $381.82 |
| $200 (5.0%) | OKC | 44 - 31 | 48 - 34 | < 53.5 | -110 | $381.82 |
| $200 (5.0%) | UTH | 42 - 32 | 46 - 36 | > 41.0 | -110 | $381.82 |
| $200 (5.0%) | NYK | 27 - 48 | 29 - 53 | > 29.0 | -110 | |
| $100 (2.5%) | HOU | 60 - 14 | 66 - 16 | > 55.5 | -110 | $190.91 |
| $100 (2.5%) | IND | 43 - 31 | 47 - 35 | > 31.5 | -110 | $190.91 |
| $100 (2.5%) | UTH | 3rd (3.5 GB) | 46 - 36 | DIV | +3000 | |
| $100 (2.5%) | MIL | 3rd (5.0 GB) | 43 - 39 | DIV | +600 | |
| $100 (2.5%) | ATL | 21 - 53 | 23 - 59 | < 25.5 | -110 | |
| $100 (2.5%) | WAS | 40 - 33 | 44 - 38 | < 49.0 | -110 | |
| $100 (2.5%) | POR | 45 - 28 | 50 - 32 | < 43.5 | -110 | $0 |
| $100 (2.5%) | BRK | 23 - 51 | 25 - 57 | > 28.5 | -110 | |
| $100 (2.5%) | DET | 34 - 40 | 37 - 45 | > 38.5 | -110 | |
| $100 (2.5%) | MEM | 20 - 54 | 22 - 60 | < 37.5 | -110 | $190.91 |
| $100 (2.5%) | PHI | 3rd (10.5 GB) | 48 - 34 | DIV | +1000 | $0 |
| $100 (2.5%) | CHI | 26 - 56 | PLAYOFF | +1600 | $0 | |
| $100 (2.5%) | TOR | 1st | 59 - 23 | DIV | +375 | |
| $100 (2.5%) | IND | 47 - 35 | PLAYOFF | +375 | ||
| $4000 | $2100.01 | |||||
As you can see, some bets are already decided (I'm sticking to those that are mathematically decided, for now). Rather than run down every bet on the list again, I thought I would offer some random thoughts on some of them:
Portland (<43.5) and Utah (>41): Obviously, these bets ran in different directions for me, but the relevant point I want to ask here is: Who the hell wants to play either of these teams in the first round? At this point, if I were Golden State, Houston, or Portland, I'd be rooting hard for Utah to pass the Spurs and take the 5th seed. Since their January 24th overtime win against Detroit, they are 21-3 with nearly a 10-point differential (for reference, NBA champions usually have a differential of about 7 and up). Utah is a team that is a lot better than its record thanks to the fact that Rudy Gobert missed 25 games.
Portland isn't quite as hot, but are close. They may have had a slightly easier schedule, but they've beaten up on quite a few playoff teams, and came within a hair of beating the Rockets the other night despite being on the end of a back-to-back. Utah has a larger home-court advantage, though. Utah might be in a position to score a huge upset in round 1 if they match up against either Portland or Golden State (where Steph's injury evens the playing field a bit).
Indiana (>31.5, Playoffs) and OKC (<54.5): The early buzz is that Victor Oladipo is the leading candidate for Most Improved Player, and for once I'm probably ok with the consensus (usually, this award goes to a player who didn't improve much, but just played more minutes and got "bigger" numbers). It's interesting to note, here, though, that even if Oladipo weren't in contention for this award, the preseason predictions were pretty head-scratching. Yes, Paul George is a good player (if overrated), but even if we stipulate that he was a great player, the prediction of 31 wins seemed to indicate that all the players Indiana added were terrible (as opposed to just "not as good as Paul George"). And that, of course, was not true; Oladipo wasn't a star last year, but he was certainly a competent NBA player. The reverse is of course also true: Adding George was an improvement that added some wins, but it wasn't pure "win profit" because they also lost some wins from Oladipo and Kanter.
Toronto (1st in Atlantic) and Boston: I'm going to lose that Boston bet (they have games against the Kings, Suns, Bulls, Hawks and Nets), but it came down to the wire. (Side note: It's ironic and infuriating that Portland won so many games to beat me, but then when I need them to beat Boston, they choked hard). As I said at the beginning of the year, it was downright ridiculous to think that Toronto was an underdog to win this division (it should have been near even money between these two teams). Toronto has overperformed a bit, yes, but when you look at their roster, and who the big win producers are, there are no giant surprises. Kyle Lowry and Jonas Valančiūnas are really good, and DeRozan is solid. Who, exactly, didn't see that coming? Who snuck up on you here? Jacop Peoltl or Delon Wright? Yeah, it's nice that both of them continued to improve and got more minutes, but both of them were already promising young players who were fairly likely to do exactly that. Neither of those players is anywhere near as surprising as Jayson Tatum, Terry Rozier, or Jaylen Brown have been for the Celtics. Basically, Toronto winning this division shouldn't surprise anyone -- the only surprise is that I'm getting a nearly 4-to-1 payout for it.
New York (>29): Oh come on, guys. It's fucking insane that this team had 21 wins in January and I'm sweating this now. The whole thing is very...suspicious. You think Michael Beasley really deserves 1500 minutes on an NBA team in (current year)?
Suspicious dog thinks the Knicks are playing a *little* too poorly.
As for the rest... I'll be sweating Denver, Detroit and Atlanta games for the next week, for sure, and it looks like profitability may come down to whether Golden State can win until Steph Curry returns.