Editor's Note: Greg Steele graded every team's moves this offseason and kindly let us host it. Since we have less than a week since the NBA is back and an editor was slow on releasing this content, we're doing some clever combining of teams. Today's theme? The NBA Finals! (I tacked on the Raptors in part, because they didn't do much, in terms of acquiring new players, at least). Greg has his own win variant, so check out his site (link below) for his methodology. Also, if you notice any many transactions, let us know!
The Methodology (Again)
I have already outlined a method to accurately grade offseason moves based on an analysis of the cost of wins in the NBA, the relationship between performance and salary, and a rubric to help the grades make sense. Now, I'm presenting the first annual NBA Offseason Data Crunch, in which I evaluate every move made by every team this summer. Before you dig in, there are two caveats:
- In what follows, I will evaluate all acquisitions in terms of the player's value relative to the value of his contract. This means that for trades, we are not interested (right now) in figuring out which team won or lost the trade. There is a time for evaluating trades in that manner, but today's analysis will consider moves purely in terms of cost-efficiency.
- The data crunch will deal only with players who are likely to impact winning or losing NBA games this year, and players whose impact we are able to reliably estimate. Rookies and future draft picks, as they do not have any NBA data, are difficult to forecast with the same accuracy as existing NBA players, so I will leave them aside for now.
Golden State Warriors
Golden State Warriors trade BRK for D’Angelo Russell
Russell’s freshly-inked 4 years $117 million dollar contract looks to be a substantial amount richer than his actual value. Though Russell took a major leap forward last year, racking up 6.9 of his 16.1 career wins, he is still a long way off from being worth $29 million a year. At his current level of production, Russell would be $18.7 million per year. There are, however, very real concerns with the proposition of Russell increasing his value: 1) his Total Efficiency fell to 44% last year when he took on the weight of being “The Man” on the Nets. 2) Russell will now play for the Warriors (for the time being), a setting that will not allow for him to do as much as he has with Nets. If he doesn’t have the ball in his hands as much as he has, it is difficult to avoid the conclusion that Russell is likely to be slightly less valuable, even if his efficiency does improve.
GRADE: C
Golden State Warriors trade with ATL for Omari Spellman
Spellman had 1.3 wins in his rookie campaign, though he operated at only 45% efficiency. He looks to have the rough outline of a stretch big, and he is on a rookie contract.
GRADE: C+
Klay Thompson signs with Golden State Warriors for 5 years/$190 million
One of the feel-good stories of the offseason was Klay Thompson resigning with the Warriors on a five-year max deal. Klay has been worth 9.2 wins per year since 2015-16, which would earn him $39.3 million annually in 2019 dollars. Since Klay’s deal will pay him $38 million per season, and he is in the midst of returning from a major injury, it looks as though the Warriors paid a steep price to keep him. However, Klay Thompson has appeared in my All-NBA teams in two of the past four seasons and has made my All-Offense teams in three of the four seasons. To get an all-league talent, teams usually have to pay a premium. From this vantage point, Thompson’s contract is about the price you would expect. If Klay returns to form after his injury (which a pretty good-sized “if,” I’ll grant you), this looks like a good move by the Warriors.
GRADE: B
Alec Burks signs with Golden State Warriors for 1 year/$2 million
I like this signing, actually; Burks is a fairly reliable role player, averaging 1.8 wins per season on teams with depth on the perimeter for most of the last four years. With the Warriors in such need of bench help, I see Burks as a great value at the veterans’ minimum.
GRADE: B
Kevon Looney signs with Golden State Warriors for 3 years/$15 million
Looney’s resigning is a terrific value deal for Golden State. His production has increased substantially year-over-year in each of the past three seasons, and last season saw him put up 4.5 wins (valued at $8.6 million) despite sharing minutes with DeMarcus Cousins. Golden State will easily double their money on this deal, and deserves a lot of credit for preventing their Western Conference rivals from swooping and nabbing Looney.
GRADE: B+
Willie Cauley-Stein signs with Golden State Warriors for 2 years/$4 million
WCS has amassed just under four wins per season in his career, which would earn him $7.2 million per season in a balanced market. At his current pay rate, Cauley-Stein should be a bargain as a high-efficiency rim runner.
GRADE: B+
Toronto Raptors
Cameron Payne signs with Toronto Raptors for 2 years/$3.7 million
Payne had a respectable rookie year in 2015-16, but has not approached the same performance level in any of his subsequent campaigns. He is unlikely to play major minutes for Toronto, and is likely to end up occupying a roster spot that would be better expended on a qualified veteran to help the Raptors complete what may be their final year of playoff contention in the current cycle before the majority of their current salary comes off the books next summer.
GRADE: C
The Data
| Name | Season | Greg Wins | Greg Wins per G | Greg Wins per 48 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Angelo Russell | 2018-19 | 6.9 | 0.085 | 0.135 |
| D'Angelo Russell | 2017-18 | 2.1 | 0.045 | 0.084 |
| D'Angelo Russell | 2016-17 | 3.4 | 0.054 | 0.09 |
| D'Angelo Russell | 2015-16 | 3.7 | 0.046 | 0.078 |
| Omari Spellman | 2018-19 | 1.3 | 0.028 | 0.076 |
| Klay Thompson | 2018-19 | 8.5 | 0.108 | 0.153 |
| Klay Thompson | 2017-18 | 7.3 | 0.099 | 0.139 |
| Klay Thompson | 2016-17 | 9 | 0.116 | 0.163 |
| Klay Thompson | 2015-16 | 12 | 0.15 | 0.216 |
| Alec Burks | 2018-19 | 2 | 0.031 | 0.07 |
| Alec Burks | 2017-18 | 2.2 | 0.035 | 0.101 |
| Alec Burks | 2016-17 | 1.5 | 0.036 | 0.111 |
| Alec Burks | 2015-16 | 1.5 | 0.047 | 0.088 |
| Kevon Looney | 2018-19 | 4.5 | 0.056 | 0.144 |
| Kevon Looney | 2017-18 | 2.8 | 0.042 | 0.147 |
| Kevon Looney | 2016-17 | 1.3 | 0.025 | 0.145 |
| Kevon Looney | 2015-16 | 0.1 | 0.01 | 0.116 |
| Willie Cauley-Stein | 2018-19 | 4.6 | 0.057 | 0.1 |
| Willie Cauley-Stein | 2017-18 | 4.4 | 0.06 | 0.102 |
| Willie Cauley-Stein | 2016-17 | 3.6 | 0.048 | 0.123 |
| Willie Cauley-Stein | 2015-16 | 3.2 | 0.049 | 0.109 |
Toronto Raptors
Cameron Payne signs with Toronto Raptors for 2 years/$3.7 million
Payne had a respectable rookie year in 2015-16, but has not approached the same performance level in any of his subsequent campaigns. He is unlikely to play major minutes for Toronto, and is likely to end up occupying a roster spot that would be better expended on a qualified veteran to help the Raptors complete what may be their final year of playoff contention in the current cycle before the majority of their current salary comes off the books next summer.
GRADE: C
| Name | Season | Greg Wins | Greg Wins per G | Greg Wins per 48 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Payne | 2018-19 | 0.7 | 0.018 | 0.047 |
| Cameron Payne | 2017-18 | 0.8 | 0.033 | 0.068 |
| Cameron Payne | 2016-17 | 0.6 | 0.02 | 0.065 |
| Cameron Payne | 2015-16 | 1.5 | 0.026 | 0.1 |
For more information and analysis, visit www.greekgodofstats.com and follow Greg on Twitter @greekgodofstats, then be sure to check out The Basketball Bible.