What follows is a guest post from Greg Steele over at "Greek God of Stats." Greg has graded every major offseason move in the NBA and kindly allowed us to share them with you. Here are Greg's thoughts on the Lakers' whirlwind offseason. And bonus, Greg will be on the Boxscore Geeks podcast this week to talk this and more!
I have already outlined a method to accurately grade offseason moves based on an analysis of the cost of wins in the NBA, the relationship between performance and salary, and a rubric to help the grades make sense. Now, I'm presenting the first annual NBA Offseason Data Crunch, in which I evaluate every move made by every team this summer. Before you dig in, there are two caveats:
- In what follows I will evaluate all acquisitions in terms of the player's value relative to the value of his contract. This means that for trades, we are not interested (right now) in figuring out which team won or lost the trade. There is a time for evaluating trades in that manner, but today's analysis will consider moves purely in terms of cost-efficiency.
- The data crunch will deal only with players who are likely to impact winning or losing NBA games this year, and players whose impact we are able to reliably estimate. Rookies and future draft picks, as they do not have any NBA data, are difficult to forecast with the same accuracy as existing NBA players, so I will leave them aside for now.
The Los Angeles Lakers
Editor's decision, we'll be listing these worst to best as per Greg's decision. Also, note while Greg uses a very similar methodology to assign his wins, it is not Wins Produced, lest there be any confusion. The grades and numbers are per Greg's metrics and decisions, please forward all praise and complaints to him!
9.) Los Angeles Lakers claim Kostas Antetokounmpo off waivers from DAL
Kostas Antetokounmpo was a below-average performer in the G-League last year and appeared in only two games in the Association. He is unlikely to factor in the Lakers' success in any way that is actually related to winning basketball games in the 2019-20 season.
GRADE: Irrelevant
Editor's note: As Chris Yeh noted on our podcast, this decision may pay off very well in upcoming seasons involving the best player in the NBA.
8.) Troy Daniels signs with the Lose Angeles Lakers for 1 year/$2 million
Daniels has generated 1.5 wins a year since 2015-16, an annual value of $3.3 million. Daniels’ production and efficiency have fluctuated substantially year-to-year, so we can’t be certain how much value he will provide to the Lakers. He is a good 3-point shooter, and role players who can shoot threes have fared will playing alongside LeBron over the years, so the evidence is in his favor.
GRADE: C+
| Name | Season | Greg Wins | Greg Wins per G | Greg Wins per 48 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Daniel | 2018-2019 | 0.6 | 0.011 | 0.036 | |
| Troy Daniels | 2017-2018 | 1.5 | 0.019 | 0.044 | |
| Troy Daniels | 2016-2017 | 2.6 | 0.039 | 0.106 | |
| Troy Daniels | 2015-2016 | 1.2 | 0.027 | 0.118 |
7.) Jared Dudley signs with Los Angeles Lakers for 1 year/$2.6 million
Over the past four seasons, Dudley has averaged 1.8 wins. His production would be equivalent to $3.6 million in salary. Since he has operated at a decent efficiency, there are relatively few concerns with Dudley switching teams. Though I don’t see him affecting their postseason destiny, Jared Dudley will help the Lakers integrate newcomers and survive the regular season.
GRADE: B-
| Name | Season | Greg Wins | Greg Wins per G | Greg Wins per 48 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Dudley | 2018-2019 | 1.7 | 0.030 | 0.069 |
| Jared Dudley | 2017-2018 | 0.5 | 0.009 | 0.032 |
| Jared Dudley | 2016-2017 | 1.7 | 0.027 | 0.060 |
| Jared Dudley | 2015-2016 | 3.3 | 0.041 | 0.076 |
6.) Danny Green signs with Los Angeles Lakers for 2 years/$30 million
Green has been worth $8.3 million per year in the last four seasons (4.4 wins/year). According to the model, then, the Lakers paid too much for him. On the other hand, Danny Green made my All-Defensive Third Team in 2016-17 and is very close to being an all-league defender in other seasons despite having a heavy load on defense covering mostly star scorers. With the Lakers trying to surround LeBron with jump shooters, they were badly in need of a perimeter defender.
GRADE: B-
| Name | Season | Greg Wins | Greg Wins per G | Greg Wins per 48 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Green | 2018-2019 | 3.7 | 0.059 | 0.102 | |
| Danny Green | 2017-2018 | 4.2 | 0.060 | 0.112 | |
| Danny Green | 2016-2017 | 4.5 | 0.066 | 0.120 | |
| Danny Green | 2015-2016 | 4.2 | 0.053 | 0.097 |
5.) Avery Bradley signs with Los Angeles Lakers for 2 years/$10 million
Avery Bradley is a tough nut to crack, analytically speaking. In his final two seasons in Boston (2016 and 2017), Bradley put up 10.9 wins ($11.7 million annual value). In the past two seasons, Bradley has been limited to 109 total games and has played on three teams. Over that span, he has put up a meager 3.8 total wins ($3.7 million/year value). Thus, his new contract with the Lakers might be a huge steal or a huge waste, depending on which data you find more reliable. Bradley’s Offensive Efficiency in 2017-18 was particularly poor and was symptomatic of his struggles. In a stable environment and with a clearly defined role, I expect Bradley to produce something more in line with his track record on the Celtics.
GRADE: B
| Name | Season | Greg Wins | Greg Wins per G | Greg Wins per 48 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avery Bradley | 2018-2019 | 1.8 | 0.029 | 0.045 | |
| Avery Bradley | 2017-2018 | 2.0 | 0.045 | 0.069 | |
| Avery Bradley | 2016-2017 | 5.0 | 0.091 | 0.131 | |
| Avery Bradley | 2015-2016 | 5.9 | 0.077 | 0.111 |
4.) Rajon Rondo signs with Los Angeles Lakers for 2 years/$5 million
Rondo is clearly in the decline phase of his career, though his average annual value over the past four seasons has been $6.1 million. Last season, however, he was worth only $3.7 million. With the direction his performance is heading, I see Rondo providing about $1 million surplus-value per year.
GRADE: B
| Name | Season | Greg Wins | Greg Wins per G | Greg Wins per 48 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rajon Rondo | 2018-2019 | 1.9 | 0.041 | 0.067 |
| Rajon Rondo | 2017-2018 | 2.9 | 0.045 | 0.083 |
| Rajon Rondo | 2016-2017 | 3.7 | 0.054 | 0.097 |
| Rajon Rondo | 2015-2016 | 5.3 | 0.074 | 0.101 |
3.) DeMarcus Cousins signs with Los Angeles Lakers for 1 year/$3.5 million
In his last two seasons since leaving Sacramento, Boogie has notched 12.4 total wins – equivalent to a $14.9 million annual salary. He should be a terrific value for the Lakers.
GRADE: B+
| Name | Season | Greg Wins | Greg Wins per G | Greg Wins per 48 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMarcus Cousins | 2018-2019 | 4.2 | 0.141 | 0.263 | |
| DeMarcus Cousins | 2017-2018 | 8.2 | 0.170 | 0.225 | |
| DeMarcus Cousins | 2016-2017 | 10.3 | 0.143 | 0.200 | |
| DeMarcus Cousins | 2015-2016 | 10.7 | 0.165 | 0.229 |
2.) Alex Caruso signs with Los Angeles Lakers for 2 years/$6 million
Caruso has been worth $2.7 million per season in his first two seasons, although he improved his production rate and Total Efficiency by impressive amounts last year. He is likely to yield extra value for the Lakers on this deal.
GRADE: B+
| Name | Season | Greg Wins | Greg Wins per G | Greg Wins per 48 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Caruso | 2018-2019 | 1.0 | 0.041 | 0.093 | |
| Alex Caruso | 2017-2018 | 0.9 | 0.025 | 0.079 |
1.) Los Angeles Lakers trade NOP for Anthony Davis
The easiest transaction to grade. Acquiring AD was a home run for the Lakers. Davis is projected to little over $27 million next season, followed by a player option for 2020-21. In the three seasons prior to last year, Davis averaged 12.6 wins per season. At that rate, we would anticipate AD to generate roughly $118.3 million worth of value, meaning that the Lakers are getting a 91 million dollar surplus from trading for AD. Of course, they did have to give up something to get him …
GRADE: A+
| Name | Season | Greg Wins | Greg Wins per G | Greg Wins per 48 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Davis | 2018-2019 | 8.3 | 0.148 | 0.215 |
| Anthony Davis | 2017-2018 | 15.6 | 0.208 | 0.275 |
| Anthony Davis | 2016-2017 | 12.1 | 0.161 | 0.214 |
| Anthony Davis | 2015-2016 | 9.9 | 0.162 | 0.219 |
For more information and analysis, visit www.greekgodofstats.com and follow Greg on Twitter @greekgodofstats, then be sure to check out The Basketball Bible.