First, if you want complete NCAA Wins Produced numbers, David Berri and Arturo Galletti have compiled them, You can download those here.
Onto our NBA Draft Analysis. I asked resident expert Andrew Sutton his opinion on some sleeper or gem picks in this year’s upcoming NBA draft. He came back with five names, so we’ll review them today. To clarify, these are Andrew's picks with my analysis. Please send all hate (and praise) Andrew's way. By the way, of course, Lonzo Ball isn’t on the list, we think he’s the best choice in the draft, baggage aside.
5) Semi Ojeleye
- Conference: AAC
- School Southern Methodist
- Position: PF
- Year: Junior (however, 22 years old)
- Wins Per 40 – 0.162
Editor’s note: You sure about this one? He seems a bit older.
Impressive Stats
- 18.9 Points per game on 62.3% True Shooting
- 42.4% from three-point range on 4.9 attempts per game.
Alright, Semi is a rock solid scorer. I assume he’ll likely play more as a small forward than a power forward. If that happens, he could be a good scoring option for any team. If he’s left as a four, I might be a bit worried given his rebounding numbers. The only concern I have is his age. That said, he was an above average player and is expected later in the draft, so definitely worth a look.
4) Lauri Markkanen
- Conference: Pac-12
- School: Arizona
- Position: PF
- Year: Freshman
- Wins per 40 – 0.243
Impressive Stats
- 15.6 Points per game on 62.4% True Shooting
- 42.3% from three-point range on 4.4 attempts per game
- 7.2 Rebounds per Game
Lauri is ranked eighth over at draft express. That said, given that our general preference for young bigs, it’s a bit low for our tastes. Sorry for the short entry but I'm a fan of this pick, a young seven-footer that can shoot, what’s not to love?
3) Derek Willis
- Conference: SEC
- School: Kentucky
- Position: Power Forward
- Year: Senior
- Wins per 40 – 0.210
Impressive Stats
- 12.8 Points per 40 minutes on 60.6% True Shooting
- 37.7% from thee-point range on 6.2 attempts per 40 minutes
- 9.8 rebounds per 40 minutes, 1.9 offensive rebounds per 40 minutes
Derek Willis doesn’t show up on any draft boards and “rightly” so. As a senior coming off the bench at Kentucky, he won’t show up behind the five Kentucky players projected in the top 100, including two in the top ten. That said, Willis is a big with a seven-foot wingspan that can shoot. We’ve also noted in past that sometimes good players numbers looked suppressed on NCAA superteams (there’s only one ball after all) Definitely a player worth a second round pick or at bare minimum a tryout.
Faith Pope
- Conference: Sun Belt
- School: Texas-Arlington
- Position: Power Forward
- Year: Senior Position: Power Forward
- Wins per 40 – 0.157
Impressive Stats
- 17.5 points per 40 minutes on 56.6% True Shooting
- 10.0 Rebounds per 40
- 3.1 Offensive Rebounds per 40
- 1.7 Blocks and 1.4 Steals per 40
You sure about this one Andrew? Faith has played limited minutes in two seasons at Texas-Arlington. His per-minute numbers are pretty solid, but not the blow away values I’d want to risk a top draft pick on. Hence the good news! You won’t find Faith’s name on any draft boards. Worth a second round flyer if you trust Andrew. Really though? 2nd on the list? Alright.
Zach Collins
- Conference: WCC
- School: Gonzaga
- Position: Center
- Year: Freshman
- Wins per 40: 0.322
Impressive Stats
- 10.0 Points a game on 70.3% True Shooting
- 13.6 Rebounds per 40 minutes
- 4.1 Blocks per 40 minutes
- 1.1 Steals per 40 minutes
I’ll use Andrew’s words here
“I know everybody is hyped about the Fultz-Ball rivalry but Zach Collins is a sleeper similar to Kawhi back in 2011. Boston is going to go with Fultz and it might work out but i'm gonna stick with the odds. I think Boston should go with a big man and Collins should be that guy. Mock drafts have him in the top 10 at least but if he ends up going to Sacramento, which I highly doubt because the double V's are running things over there.”
Seriously though, what is not to love about Collins? It seems many will fall for the minutes trick. As a freshman at a good school, Collins was going to play fewer minutes, but in those minutes he was fantastic. You should be looking for upside in the NBA draft, and Collins looks like he has some amazing skills. Andrew notes that’s Collins per-minute numbers make him comparable to Anthony Davis, Karl Anthony-Towns, and Kevin Love! The Celtics could easily trade down, get a great future big, and even offload Al Horford’s bloated contract (yes he played well in the playoffs, which means it’s time to sell high!)
What do you think of Andrew’s picks? Have your own thoughts? Download the data, chime in below in the comments, and we’ll talk to you soon.