I've finally got an early version of the 2016-17 numbers working. There are bound to be clerical errors here and there (every year several new players seem to get mis-categorized because of misspelled names, etc), but for the most part things are working. Hopefully, I'll be able to rapidly turn around on any errors that you might find. Help me out and report errors using the contact page. But first a couple of known issues:
- I don't have game-by-game data yet. I believe it's coming soon, though!
- Joel Embiid isn't classified as a rookie. Sadly, my algorithm naively assumes your rookie year is the player's first year, rather than the first year in which he plays. Working on a fix.
Ok, with that out of the way, here are some early attempts to build narratives from sample sizes that are way too small:
Russell Westbrook for MVP!
He has put up crazy numbers and has taken the early lead in this race (after 3 games, this is the equivalent of leading the pack after mile one of a marathon). Here's the big question: If Russell averages a triple-double for the first time since Oscar Robertson, but the Thunder don't win the playoffs, will the voters snub him? There's an unwritten rule that the MVP must come from a contender (hence Kevin Garnett winning it only once, despite putting up numbers not seen since Larry Legend at the time for 4 years straight). Admittedly, this is an unlikely outcome, because if he keeps playing like this, he won't need THAT much help from his teammates to propel the Thunder to 50+ wins.
Worrying Trends in Minnesota
Karl Towns is pulling down fewer rebounds per minute than Kris Dunn or Zach Lavine, and isn't shooting well either. I don't think either trend will continue, but I am worried about how he's being used so far, because he doesn't look like the defensive anchor that he was last year.
Andrew Wiggins continues to disappoint me. I know this is a very unpopular opinion among Minnesota fans, but I've never considered Wiggins a big star, and that's primarily because he's never shown much ability to do anything other than score. Yes, he has all the signs of eventually becoming a very efficient shooter with his ability to score in the post and get to the line, but he's below average on every other box score metric. This is problematic because shooting is high-variance, even for good shooters. If you are going to hurt your team every time you have an off-night shooting, the ceiling on your average production is limited. He has no assists and no steals through 72 minutes. I'm aware that he's young and can improve, but my bad news for Minnesota optimists is that these are usually not the areas that players improve in. Rebounding and steals in particular are the type of thing that young players entering the NBA are generally already good at or not.
The Good Rajon Rondo
It looks like the Bulls got Dr. Jekyll, not Mr. Hyde. Rondo's just ahead of Westbrook in assists, but also rebounding well, grabbing steals. Also, Dwyane Wade is average 3 three point attempts per game, which must make Eric Spoelstra feel really special. So far, it seems like if you just take a bunch of really good players and throw them on the court, it somehow works out even if it looks like you'll have 'chemistry' problems on paper. Spacing is important but it probably doesn't outweigh talent as a determining factor in wins and losses.
The Warriors Have Upside
The Warriors are 2-1 so far despite the fact that many of their big stars just haven't shown up yet. Last year, Curry led the league in steals and was a good rebounder to boot. This year, aside from his vaunted shooting, he hasn't done much of anything. Klay Thompson is shooting 15% on threes and Shaun Livingston hasn't looked himself, either. The team really does miss Andrew Bogut but I don't think that's the core problem. Once all the cylinders start hitting together, they'll steamroll other teams.