A few days ago, I wrote a preliminary piece on a few teams that I believe will be surprisingly good. Those teams were Toronto, Utah, and Boston. There may be more. Today, for symetry's sake, I'm going to do a few quick hits on some teams that I think are going to surprise you because they just won't be all that great.
New York? Srsly?
The New York Knicks
So...take last year's Knicks, which were surprisingly good, and a big reason for that was the strength of their 3-point efficiency (a highly variable factor). Now subtract its best 3-point shooter (Novak) and its highly efficient shooting guard (Kidd). Then make Tyson Chandler and Amare Stoudemire each a year older (are we done calling Amare "Stat"? 'Cause now it's just kinda embarassing). Finally, sprinkle in a bit of the worst player in the NBA. These are not the ingredients of a championship. Adding a stellar-but-ancient defender who won't see a lot of playing time won't help either. You can make an argument that Kidd was a defensive liability, but he was a good rebounder and he and prigioni were the only two players that kept the ball moving in that offense. Then consider that Bargnani is a much worse defender, at a much more important position defensively, and that the Knicks don't have the types of players that can make up for it. I expect that this team is going to be about 10 wins worse than last year's team, which is probably going to get Mike Woodson fired, because management's expectations are too high.
I suppose it is possible that Woodson keeps Bargs on the bench entirely, starts Metta World Peace, and plays Melo at PF, but it won't be enough to make up for the Knicks shortcomings. And all the while we're banking on Tyson Chandler to stay healthy and play heavy minutes. It's hard to see this team beating the Bulls, the Pacers, or the Nets in a four game series, much less the Heat.
The New Orleans Pelicans
I may have a skewed idea of how the media percieves the Pelicans but my impression is that everyone thinks they got much better with Jrue Holiday and Tyreke Evans. Sadly, I don't think either player is going to move the needle very far. The problem with Evans is that he'll play behind both Holiday and Gordon, so he likely won't get enough minutes to make a difference. Although I suppose If Gordon's recent injury troubles continue, I guess Evans will replace his minutes, which will indeed make a big difference. Evans could also potentially play some SF, but there again, he'd just be taking minutes from the very effective Aminu.
The problem with Holiday is that he's nowhere near as good as the media believes, and isn't actually a huge improvement over Greivis Vasquez:
| POS | Min | WP48 | PoP48 | Wins | PTS | DRB | ORB | REB | AST | TO | BLK | STL | PF | |
| Holiday | PG | 2926 | .066 | -1.0 | 4.0 | 22.7 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 5.4 | 10.3 | 4.8 | 0.5 | 2.0 | 2.8 |
| Vasquez | PG | 2685 | .080 | -0.6 | 4.5 | 19.4 | 5.3 | 0.8 | 6.0 | 12.6 | 4.4 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 3.4 |
| Average PG | PG | 1651 | .099 | 0.0 | 3.4 | 20.2 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 4.8 | 8.6 | 3.5 | 0.4 | 1.9 | 3.4 |
| FG% | 2FG% | 3FG% | FT% | eFG% | TS% | FGA | 3FGA | PPS | FTA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holiday | 43.1% | 44.6% | 36.8% | 75.2% | 46.6% | 49.6% | 21.1 | 4.1 | 1.07 | 4.0 |
| Vasquez | 43.3% | 46.2% | 34.2% | 80.5% | 47.4% | 50.2% | 18.1 | 4.3 | 1.07 | 2.8 |
| Average PG | 43.2% | 46.3% | 36.6% | 81.5% | 49.1% | 53.3% | 17.1 | 5.4 | 1.18 | 4.2 |
Jrue scores more points, and is a better defender and 3-point shooter, but Vasquez rebounds better, gets more assists, and turns the ball over less. Although they play vastly different styles, in terms of wins, this swap is simply not likely to make a big difference. Of course, Jrue is only 23 and will likely improve. But even if he makes a big jump this year (and I would not count that out), we're still only talking about 2-3 wins over the course of an 82-game season.
On top of that, the role players that the Pelicans have added are terrible. Players like Lou Amundson and Greg Stiemsma are difference makers -- in a negative way. It's likely the Pelicans will improve by something like 5 wins, on the strength of Tyreke Evans, an improving and healthy Anthony Davis, and a Ryan Anderson bounce back, but this still has them in the 30-35 win territory; hardly worth trading away a potential stud like Noel, to say nothing of the draft pick!
The Brooklyn Nets
Actually, no matter what this team does, I think it is going to be surprising. But the bottom line is that I think this team is going to be a top-10 team, not a top 5 team, and it is very hard to see this team beating Chicago or Miami. In the West I think they'd be a 5th seed.
One of the problems is, of course, age. Garnett is about to pass Wilt Chamberlain in minutes played. Yes, the same Wilt who averaged more than 48 minutes in one season. Garnett's knees, ankles and back have a lot of milage on them. Pierce is still effective but no longer the star he once was. Joe Johnson, who's always been overrated anyway, is now way past his prime.
Another one of their problems is that their best players overlap at the same positions. Kirilenko will take time from Pierce, or Garnett. If AK plays a lot of power forward, that will take minutes from Reggie Evans. Joe Johnson keeps Jason Terry off the floor. I would love to see an experimental lineup like playing Pierce at the 2 and AK at the 3 with Johnson on the bench but I don't think it's likely. It's equally unlikely that they roll with Williams-Johnson-Pierce-AK-KG and bring their "max player" Lopez on the bench.
Don't get me wrong, the Nets have a lot going for them: Lopez is likely to keep improving. There are hints that Deron Williams is finally healthy and might return to his old stardom. They are very deep and this will win some games in the regular season. But I cannot see them winning 55 - 60 games. I think 50-55 is more realistic, and it seems like everyone in Brooklyn expects a lot more.